Presidential Election Speculations, Alliances, and Cross-Overs
Countdown to October 18: Intricacies of the Presidential Election Year
After much expectation 2024 has dawned and with it, politics has begun in earnest in Sri Lanka. That is not surprising because it is an election year with Presidential Elections (PE) due by October 18, the latest. At the time of writing, which leaves political parties just 290 days to get their acts together for the crucial polls.
Speculation is rife about the potential contenders. Of the major political parties, Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB) leader Sajith Premadasa and the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP)-led Jathika Jana Balavegaya (JJB) leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) have announced themselves as candidates but there are lingering doubts about the other candidates.
President Ranil Wickremesinghe is yet to formally announce whether he is contesting the PE or not. It is widely expected that he would. However, the absence of a commitment has led to other political parties claiming that the President might not eventually contest.
The first to make such a pronouncement was Jathika Nidahas Peramuna (JNP) leader Wimal Weerawansa who said the President would not run for re-election. This was followed by an even more assertive but similar prediction by JJB stalwart and former Parliamentarian Sunil Handuneththi.
Constitutional Amendments
In fact, at one time there was speculation that President Wickremesinghe would opt for a Constitutional Amendment to abolish the Executive Presidency, replacing it with a Westminster-style Government with the Prime Minister heading the Executive. This would indeed avoid the need for a PE.
It was suggested that, since this would require an Amendment to the Constitution and a period of transition until that is achieved, President Wickremesinghe could stay in office as a transitional President until these changes are affected and probably return to Parliament as the Prime Minister.
However, that speculation was laid to rest when President Wickremesinghe told Parliament during the last Budget debate that the PE will be held on schedule in 2024. He even said that a General Election (GE) would follow soon after, even though that is not mandated until 2025.
In what was a significant response to all these sentiments, United National Party (UNP) General Secretary Palitha Range Bandara asserted this week that the President will indeed run for office. “President Wickremesinghe will be contesting the Presidential Elections,” Bandara assured the media.
President Wickremesinghe has embarked on forming a grand alliance to back him at the PE, Bandara said. “We are talking to many political parties, and many will join us to back President Wickremesinghe at the PE this year,” the former Puttalam District MP explained.
Venturing a step further, Bandara said the UNP does not expect SJB leader Premadasa to contest the poll at this stage. “We do not expect Opposition Leader Premadasa to contest the PE as he would be left without a formidable team as time goes on,” Bandara said.
Intrigues within the SLPP
While these assertions may be political rhetoric aimed at confusing SJB supporters, it is known in political circles that the President intends to form a broader alliance between selected members of the UNP, SJB, the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) and the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP).
Apart from the UNP, a significant component of this alliance is a group of dissident Parliamentarians from the SLPP. The task of organising this group has fallen to Gampaha District Parliamentarian Nimal Lanza, a vocal supporter of President Wickremesinghe. The leadership role in this alliance has been bestowed on former Minister Anura Priyadarshana Yapa.
This alliance is making preparations for an official launch early this month. It will be a critical step in the relationship between the President and the UNP on the one hand and the SLPP on the other. So far, President Wickremesinghe has been astutely working with the SLPP with little conflict. It remains to be seen how many of those in the SLPP, most of them currently holding office as Ministers and State Ministers, will join this proposed alliance. If they do, their loyalty to the SLPP will be called into question. Some of them are likely to remain with the SLPP for the time being, at least publicly.
For its part, the SLPP is letting it be known that it is still considering all options instead of categorically supporting President Wickremesinghe at any future PE. For this purpose, it is promoting business magnate Dhammika Perera.
Ever since he was accorded prominence and pride of place in the seating arrangements at the SLPP’s second National Convention in Colombo, Perera has taken to mainstream and social media to play the role of a possible SLPP candidate. The SLPP has also forwarded a list of ten ‘criteria’ to him, to assess his suitability.
This public posturing suggests that, if the SLPP feels compelled for whatever reason not to support President Wickremesinghe, then Perera will be nominated as its candidate. On the other hand, if it does finally endorse the incumbent President, Perera is of a sufficiently low profile and can discreetly withdraw.
Critical Choices Ahead for SLPP and SJB
Which of these options will be chosen depends on how the relationship between the President and the SLPP progresses over the next few months. It will also depend on how the SLPP rates its chances of success supporting the President vis-à-vis endorsing Perera, the latter obviously having fewer prospects as he is a political novice. People still have fresh memories of what happened after electing Gotabaya Rajapaksa, another political neophyte, to the Presidency back in 2019.
If cross-over and party politics are now the name of the game, the SJB also began the New Year in style. This, it did by announcing the cross-over of Shan Wijayalal de Silva, a relatively senior member of the SLFP from Down South, who held the rank of Senior Vice-President of that party, until he joined the SJB.
De Silva contested Galle District at the last GE in August 2020 under the SLPP banner as a nominee of the SLFP. He finished sixth on a list of seven MPs elected from the alliance. Since then, he has remained within the SLFP, working closely with former General Secretary Dayasiri Jayasekera, who is now a vocal opponent of the present administration.
De Silva also held the post of Chief Minister of the Southern Province (SP) for many years under different Presidents and has also been a Governor of the Eastern Province (EP). He hails from the electorate of Ambalangoda and being a veteran politician in the region, commands popular support.
The SJB shuffled some of its electoral organisers to accommodate de Silva. Despite the angst it caused some of its own members, the party leadership thought it fit to have him in their camp as they felt he would be able to influence the voters of Ambalangoda, where he was appointed as the SJB organiser.
The SJB would portray De Silva’s cross-over as a major victory in the race to project the party as the most popular Opposition party. However, more significant is the fact that De Silva is a Dayasiri Jayasekara loyalist, leading to speculation that Jayasekara may also soon follow suit.
Following the announcement by De Silva, two leading personalities of the Nidahasa Jathika Sabhawa (NJS), Prof. G.L. Peiris and Dilan Perera have also announced they will be formally joining the SJB. Both of them have said that forming a broad Opposition Alliance was an ‘urgent’ necessity.
SJB’s Strategic Success
While expressing their commitment to collaborate with the SJB, Parliamentarians Peiris and Perera clarified that they have not officially joined the party.
\Instead, they emphasised their decision to work together with the SJB while at the same time preserving their distinct political identity.
Perera also acknowledged the fact that MP Dullas Alahapperuma, a leading figure in the NJS who ran against President Wickremesinghe in the Parliamentary ballot to choose a successor to Gotabaya Rajapaksa, is yet to align himself fully with the SJB, though this cannot be ruled out yet. He might also opt to remain independent.
These events indicate that the SJB has been successful to some extent in attracting dissidents from other parties, most notably MPs and Ministers who contested under the banner of the SLPP at the last GE, be they from the SLPP itself or its other partner party, the SLFP.
The other major Opposition party, the JJB, has not been affected so far by these ‘cross-overs. In fact, it has been keen to conduct a grassroots-level campaign with a series of rallies in major cities which have been well-attended. It is clear they intend to fight the next PE and GE on their own. Another question hovering in political circles is whether President Wickremesinghe will call for an early GE.
This would ensure that, no matter which party wins, he will be in office until October this year, allowing him more time and space to manoeuvre the swiftly changing political landscape.
However, this seems an unlikely prospect. The most likely outcome of such an election is no party emerging with a clear majority, leading to an unstable and probably short-lived Government. At this time of national urgency, Sri Lanka can ill-afford such an uncertain political fate.
