Iran’s missile and drone blitzkrieg on Israel over the weekend, prompted apparently by a suspected Israeli attack on the Iranian Consulate in Damascus, Syria, that killed seven high-profile members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) could potentially create a wider conflict in the already volatile Middle East North Africa (MENA) region.
According to reports, Israel managed to intercept 99 percent of the incoming projectiles with the help of its missile defence systems such as Iron Dome and Arrow. Allies including some Arab States which do not see eye to eye with Iran have also supported Israel to blunt Iran’s attack. Only minor damage was reported from an air base.
Apart from the missile barrage, IRGC commandos also seized an Israel-linked cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy shipping routes. Flights were suspended in countries across the region, with most airlines halting flights to both countries. However, most airlines have now resumed such flights. Share prices also fell in stock markets in Israel and the Gulf States.
This marks a dangerous escalation of the Israel-Hamas conflict that began on October 7 last year following a brutal attack on Israeli civilians by Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip. Hamas took hundreds of Israeli civilians hostage, only a few of whom were released later under a Qatari-brokered deal. Israel, under the leadership of Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu, has since unleashed a savage, completely disproportionate attack on Gaza, which has left more than 34,000 civilians dead and most others on the brink of starvation. Israel has also threatened a ground offensive in Rafah, near the Egyptian border, that could lead to massive devastation.
Much of the world has condemned Israel’s conduct of the war and the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) recently passed a Resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. The United States (US), Israel’s closest ally, apparently frustrated by the non-stop killings of civilians despite warnings, did not use its Veto to stop the ceasefire call. Moreover, South Africa, supported by much of the Global South, has taken to Israel to the World Court in The Hague, on charges of genocide.
However, the picture has changed somewhat with the Iranian attack on Israel, as the US promptly gave an “ironclad” guarantee that it will defend Israel in any full-blown conflict against Iran. So did several other Western nations. However, they have seemingly advised Israel not to retaliate at this stage. This marks the first direct confrontation between the two archenemies in almost 50 years, although Iranian-backed Houthi rebels have been targeting Western merchant vessels in the Red Sea for a few months. This led Israel’s allies and other nations with shipping interests to launch the “Operation Prosperity Guardian” naval cordon to protect the shipping routes and ships.
Many international affairs analysts say that the Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus was ipso facto an attack on Iranian soil, since a diplomatic compound is generally considered as a territory belonging to the country in question. Incidentally, this Vienna Convention rule came into sharp focus last week as Ecuadorian commandos raided the Mexican Embassy in Quito to nab former Ecuadorian Vice President, Jorge Glas who had been granted asylum by Mexico. Thus many analysts say that Iran had to show some sort of response, at least for regional and domestic political consumption.
All eyes are now on Netanyahu, who has made no bones about what he thinks of Iran. Under his leadership, the Israeli defence establishment has assassinated several Iranian officials, including top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh Mahabad. Iran is among the few countries in the region that still do not recognize Israel’s right to exist and it was also wary of growing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. In fact, by design or default, the Hamas attack on Israel actually derailed those moves towards détente.
But now, the best option for both sides is restraint, lest this escalate into a wider regional conflict that could also drag in groups in Iraq, Lebanon and Syria, not to mention other global powers. The US says it does not seek any conflict with Iran, which, on its part, said it has “concluded” the attacks for now, unless Israel retaliates with a bigger attack. A wider conflict or war is the last thing that the region needs. The world has already seen the dire effects of two major wars in different continents – the Ukraine War and the Israel-Hamas War. Any confrontation that adds fuel to this raging fire can cause further damage to the world economy and supply chains.
At this stage, the only imponderable factor is Netanyahu’s mindset, which tends to see the War through the prism of domestic electoral politics. With his political life literally on the line due to corruption allegations on the one hand and calls for early elections by his opponents and the public (who are incensed by his handling of the hostage crisis) on the other, Netanyahu might opt to intensify the War to gain more political mileage. Intermediaries such as the US, Qatar and Egypt should compel Netanyahu not to take that destructive path.
