There were widespread expectations that May Day, a day where political parties in the country traditionally display their strength, would provide notable indications about cross-overs and change of loyalties but that did not materialise. Yet, the day was not without significant political messages.
All major parties, the ruling United National Party (UNP) and the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna as well as major opposition parties, the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB), the Jathika Jana Balavegaya (JJB) and the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) staged political rallies, some more than one.
If there was an expectation that there would be SJB parliamentarians on the UNP platform in Colombo, that did not happen. That speculation was generated by the comments of UNP General Secretary Palitha Range Bandara who hinted that several SJB MPs will be at the UNP rally.
UNP stalwarts say that the decision to defer the defection of SJB MPs was made on the directions of President Ranil Wickremesinghe who felt it would be premature. It is now being suggested that such a cross-over will occur only after President Wickremesinghe declares his candidacy for the Presidency.
However, the SJB has countered this by claiming that the UNP has time and again in the past few months hinted that many a SJB parliamentarian was willing to join that party but this has not happened. The SJB states it is confident that this will not occur in the future too as polls approach.
Ongoing dialogue
It is nevertheless an open secret in political circles that there is an ongoing dialogue between SJB MPs and the UNP leadership. SJB parliamentarian Thalatha Atukorale has said in a recent media interview that it would be beneficial for the country if the two parties united to carry out a common programme.
Despite the absence of cross-overs from the SJB, there was a surprise cross-over. It was a SLPP parliamentarian, Gayashan Nawananda, a young backbencher representing the Moneragala district for the first time who had previously declared himself as ‘independent’, joining the UNP’s May Day rally.
Nawananda is originally from the Democratic Left Front led by Vasudeva Nanayakkara. A medical doctor by profession, he had very briefly served as State Minister for Health under former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa in mid-2022 after a ministerial reshuffle when political upheaval was at its peak.
Notwithstanding the expected SJB cross-overs becoming a non-event, UNP leaders felt its May Day was a success as it was well-attended. In his speech, President Ranil Wickremesinghe called on both the SJB and the JJB to join him in his effort to rebuild the country’s economy in the coming months.
Similar positive sentiments about its prospects were expressed by the SLPP at the conclusion of its rally in Colombo. The party used the event to demonstrate that it still has political clout, if it is to be judged by the crowds it attracted. This is at a time when it is perceived that its popularity has fallen.
All leading SLPP stalwarts attended the rally. Observers noted that parliamentarian and businessman Dhammika Perera, once perceived as a potential Presidential candidate from the party also attended. Prasanna Ranatunga, who publicly supports President Wickremesinghe’s candidacy was also present.
Charismatic leader
In his speech, SLPP leader and former President Mahinda Rajapaksa re-iterated that the party will continue with its policies, albeit correcting the mistakes it had made. Despite advancing age and health concerns, it was quite evident that Mahinda Rajapaksa retains his charisma as a leader.
In his address, former President Rajapaksa said that there will be “candidate who has the blessings of the SLPP” at the next Presidential election. Observers have noted that he did not say the candidate will be from the SLPP itself, leaving room for President Wickremesinghe to be endorsed by the party.
The main opposition party in Parliament, the SJB also staged a well-attended a rally in Colombo but some of the internal difficulties encountered by the party were evident at the gathering. Among the notable absentees at the meeting were former Ministers Rajitha Senaratne and ThalathaAtukorale.
SJB Chairman and former Army Commander Sarath Fonseka, who is embroiled in legal proceedings with the party over issues related to his conduct was present at the May Day rally but left before the conclusion of the meeting, again fuelling speculation that these differences have not been resolved.
SJB and Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa used his speech to offer a series of pledges to voters, indicating that he was utilising the opportunity to muster support for his candidacy at the Presidential election. It included a promise to allow estate sector workers to own small-scale plantations.
The rallies organised by the JJB also attracted much interest. In a departure from tradition an probably in an attempt to show its strength, the party staged four main May Day rallies in Colombo, Matara, Anuradhapura and Jaffna. All rallies, with the exception of the Jaffna meeting, attracted large crowds.
Strong vote base
Most media organisations estimated that the crowds at the JJB rallies were more than those at the meetings of other political parties. It was also noted that the rally at Matara drew the largest crowd, perhaps even more than the Colombo meeting indicating the party’s strong vote base in the South.
However, this is a historical phenomenon. The JJB’s precursor, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) always drew massive crowds at its rallies but its performance at elections was relatively poor. The reason for this is a highly structured and organised party drawing all its faithful to their rallies.
Whether this will be the case for the JJB as well remains to be seen as the JJB is yet to contest an election. Still, the crowds present at the JJB rallies in at least three locations in the country indicate a surge of support for the leftist party but whether this will suffice to win elections is a matter of debate.
JJB leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake took pains to outline his party’s programme for the country. Many noted that his speech conveyed the impression that the JJB had already assumed they would be governing the country after the Presidential elections which must be held by October this year.
The meeting of the SLFP also attracted attention not because it drew massive crowds but because it reflected the tumultuous times the party was going through. It was attended by former President Maithripala Sirisena who has been suspended by the Courts from functioning as its party Chairman.
Taking centre stage at the rally was Justice Minister Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe who is now being promoted by Sirisena as the SLFP candidate for the Presidency. Rajapakshe has implied that he welcomes the offer but said he will contest only if President Wickremesinghe doesn’t contest.
Different factions
The SLFP rally confirmed what many had suspected, that divisions within party run deep and any reconciliation of the different factions before national elections is nearly impossible now. Besides, that would require a multitude of legal proceedings initiated by different individuals to be disposed of.
Apart from the rhetoric generated from the platforms of different political parties, the other issue that captured the attention of the public was the proposed debate between the leaders of the SJB and JJB, Sajith Premadasa and Anura Kumara Dissanayake. Both parties are trading accusations regarding this.
Such a debate was first proposed by SJB MP Nalin Bandara Jayamaha. The JJB claims that when they suggested four dates for the debate in May, Premadasa said he was otherwise engaged on all four dates. Now, the JJB has said it will agree to any date until May 20 that is convenient for Premadasa.
In response, the SJB has stated that Premadasa is willing to take up the challenge, provided the JJB also agrees to a debate between its economic experts- Eran Wickramaratne, Kabir Hashim and Dr. Harsha de Silva- and those individuals who will determine the economic policy of the JJB.
The JJB has stopped short of agreeing to this. The matter has not progressed since then. Even if both sides agree in principle to debate each other, the logistics of how this can occur in an impartial forum needs to be worked out and this could well become the stumbling block to the debate occurring.
May Day therefore may not have yielded the great surprises that the public anticipated in terms of cross-overs of leading political personalities. Still, it served as a forerunner to what will be a few months of hectic electioneering, heading towards a critical presidential election later this year.
