World’s biggest democratic exercise with 970 million eligible voters will commence today. India’s seven-phase election, commencing on April 19th is scheduled to end six weeks later and results will be declared on June 4th.
The Election Commission of India has set a staggering 44-day timetable for the country’s 18th Lok Sabha elections, between April 19 and June 1, with the results declared on June 4. There will be seven phases of voting – on April 19, April 26, May 7, May 13, May 20, May 25, and June 1. Voting will take place on all seven days in some states – like Bihar, West Bengal, and Uttar Pradesh; two or more days of voting in states like Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Odisha; and single day voting in other states including Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Kerala, Punjab, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu and Telangana.
Total expenditure by political parties exceeded USD 7 billion in 2019, compared to USD 6.5 billion spent in the US during the 2016 election.
First-time voters
The voter registry has increased by 150 million since the 2019 elections, and that includes 18 million first-time voters. The voter turnout was 67% in India in 2019, compared to 66% in the 2022 US Presidential Election and average 62% in Sri Lanka. What might be of interest and significance in the Indian election this year is the voter turnout in different states – depending on the relative positions of the contesting parties and alliances.
Ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is tipped to win near two third of 543 seats in Lok Sabha, House of Representatives. Although Sri Lanka will not be an issue in Indian elections this time, BJP leader Prime Minister Narendra Modi raised the issue of Katchatheevu Island in his last three platform speeches in Tamil Nadu. Analysts are of the opinion that he made this remark repeatedly to gain few Tamil votes for his party the BJP which has no foothold in Tamil Nadu, the state which will send 39 MPs to Lok Sabha.
As Tamil Nadu will go to polls today, Premier Modi is not likely to talk about Congress Party ‘ceding’ Katchatheevu to Sri Lanka in the remaining part of the electioneering or thereafter.
While the BJP has the Hindi belt in its pocket, the Party’s position is generally weak in the South, especially in Tamil Nadu, where the powerful Tamil party, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) is slated to get the lion’s share. Some analysts say the DMK led alliance will grab all the 39 Parliamentary seats in the state.
Third force
Election fever has gripped Tamil Nadu and both Prime Minister Modi and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi have held multiple rallies in the state. Modi has made seven visits to Tamil Nadu since February 27. It is apparent the BJP is trying to be a third force in Tamil Nadu where the DMK and AIADMD held power for over six decades after the Congress lost its hold in 1960s. In 2019 General Elections, the BJP aligned itself with AIADMK. However, the rival DMK-led bloc as part of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) swept Tamil Nadu, bagging 38 of the 39 seats. The AIADMK could win in only a single seat.
This time, the BJP is in a new alliance. Of the 39 seats, the BJP is contesting 23, the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) 10, former Minister G.K. Vasan-led Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC) three, and T.T.V. Dhinakaran’s Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) is fighting for two. One seat has gone to expelled AIADMK leader O. Panneerselvam.
Analyst Amitabh Tewari says there has been a shift among Scheduled Castes and Vanniyars towards the DMK, while the Gounders – the community Annamalai hails from – the Thevars, and the Nadars are warming up to the BJP. Around 20% of Thevars and Goudners in Tamil Nadu voted for the BJP in 2019, according to the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies’ (CSDS) National Election Studies survey.
Despite the hard work of both PM Modi winning a decent number of seats in Tamil Nadu is going to be a daunting task for the BJP, which couldn’t even open its account in 2019.
Many analysts believe the person who persuaded PM Modi to raise the issue of Katchatheevu was Dr. S. Ramdoss of PMK, whose father, the founder of PMK consistently supported LTTE. The BJP is banking on S. Ramadoss’s PMK – which has been consistently getting 5-6% votes since its formation – to provide it with some ammunition in North Tamil Nadu and amongst the Vanniyar community.
Vote share
Chief Minister M K Stalin’s DMK leads a formidable grouping. It enjoys a combined vote share of over 50%. That will ensure its alliance NDA almost all the Lok Sabha seats in Tamil Nadu.
Despite the drawback in Tamil Nadu, the BJP has the advantage in all most all the states in Hindi belt. In the last General Elections the BJP has won more than 50% of the votes and in six states where it won three-fourths of the seats with over 50% of votes.
Confident of victory, the BJP has extended invitations to political parties from 25 countries, including Sri Lanka, to witness the Indian elections and the accompanying campaigning.
The invitations, which have been dispatched to political parties from both ruling and opposition factions, include representatives from various regions such as Africa, Europe, and neighbouring countries.
Some pre-poll surveys predicted that the BJP-led NDA alliance will get more than 360 seats and would surpass the two-thirds majority threshold in parliament besides giving Modi a three-in-a-row success in three successive elections.
Hindutva policy
The Modi government became very popular for its handling of the economy, though a section of intellectuals resent its Hindutva policy and the disregard shown to the secular policy. The blows against India’s secular superstructure include the abrogation of Article 370 of the Constitution that ended the autonomous status granted to Jammu and Kashmir; changes to citizenship rules for undocumented migrants that excluded Muslims and included five other religious groups including Hindus; and the recent inauguration of the Ram temple in Ayodhya.
Political parties from Nepal, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka have received invitations from the BJP, marking a concerted effort to engage with neighbouring countries and showcase the democratic process.
Dr. Vijay Chauthaiwale, in charge of the Foreign Affairs Department at the Bharatiya Janata Party, emphasised the significance of this initiative. This marks the first instance of the BJP inviting foreign political parties to observe campaigning during national elections.
