UNP management committee’s resolution to endorse President Wickremesinghe as a ‘common’ candidate adds a twist to the electoral dynamics.
SJB faces internal discord as Leader Sajith Premadasa invites Nidahasa Janatha Sabhawa (NJS) stalwarts, causing dissatisfaction among existing SJB MPs.
SLPP contemplates whether to field its own candidate or support President Wickremesinghe.
The clock is ticking slowly but steadily in the countdown towards the Presidential Election. Political parties are gearing themselves to meet the challenge which, at this time, seems to be heading towards a three-way tussle, 
although many a change is still possible between now and October this year.
Already, Leader of the Opposition Sajith Premadasa of the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB) and Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the Jathika Jana Balavegaya (JJB) have announced themselves as candidates. The first indications that President Ranil Wickremesinghe will also contest emerged last week.
Although President Wickremesinghe is yet to formally announce himself as a candidate, the Management Committee of his party, the United National Party (UNP) has met, discussed the issue and resolved that he should contest. This Committee has now forwarded that request to the President.
It is unlikely that the UNP, of which President Wickremesinghe is the leader, will make such a request without the President’s blessings. However, by not formally declaring himself as a candidate yet, President has kept his opponents guessing and also allowed room for a change in the decision.
Unconventional bid
It may be the UNP that has resolved to request President Wickremesinghe to contest the Presidential poll, but he would not be doing so as a candidate of the party with its established ‘elephant’ symbol. Instead, he will be projecting himself as a ‘national’ candidate representing a set of policies.
This is because the President hopes to rally not only the UNP- which has only one Member of Parliament- but also parliamentarians from other political parties to support him. These include MPs from the SJB, Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP).
The corridors of power are buzzing with the news that recruiting MPs from the SJB to support President Wickremesinghe has become easier lately. This is after SJB leader Premadasa invited several stalwarts of the Nidahasa Janatha Sabhawa (NJS) to support the SJB- and several did.
Among them are many high-profile politicians such as G.L. Peiris, Dullas Alahapperuma, Dilan Perera and Nalaka Godahewa. Accommodating these individuals on SJB candidates’ lists would necessarily mean that the chances of sitting SJB MPs returning to Parliament will diminish.
Of the above NJS MPs, only Peiris was nominated on the National List. Alahapperuma, Perera and Godahewa contested from the Matara, Badulla and Gampaha districts respectively. Godahewa topped the highly competitive Gampaha district preference votes list. All of them maintain a high profile.
This has worried and annoyed many SJB parliamentarians. They complain that they have stood with the party in difficult times when it was in the opposition, only to have their chances of re-election spoilt by those now parachuting from the SLPP into the party, with Premadasa’s blessings.
Strategic alliances
These MPs, most of whom are ex-UNPers who were in that party under President Wickremesinghe’s leadership are now considering their options. In the final reckoning, what will matter is their prospects for re-election. If they feel they have a better chance with the UNP, they are likely to opt for that.
It is no secret in political circles that some SJB MPs are maintaining a dialogue with the UNP. SJB leader Premadasa is also aware of this. Some in the SJB leadership group have advised him of the perils of inviting the NJS. However, Premadasa is of the view that this is the best way forward.
The dynamics vis-à-vis the UNP and the SLPP is different. At present, they are in partnership because President Wickremesinghe heads a Government comprising mostly of SLPP MPs and ministers. This relationship, tested at times, has remained reasonably strong in the past one and a half years.
The dilemma for the SLPP is the fact that its popularity has waned in recent years, in the context of the country’s economic crisis and the political upheaval of mid-2022 which led to resignation of then President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. It is not thought to be in a position to win an election on its own.
It was this perceived lack of popular support in mid-2022 that compelled the party to support the then only parliamentarian of the UNP, Ranil Wickremesinghe for the Presidency at the ballot in Parliament- and that too against a candidate from their own party in Dullas Alahapperuma.
Now the SLPP is at a political crossroads again. It has to decide between fielding a candidate of its own or supporting President Wickremesinghe. In the meantime, the President, being the astute politician that he is, has cultivated a group of SLPP parliamentarians who are now loyal to him.
Shadow candidacy
This group, which styles itself as the ‘New Alliance’, is nominally led by former Minister Anura Priyadarshana Yapa but is masterminded by Nimal Lansa. Even if the SLPP decides to field its own candidate at a Presidential election, this group is likely to endorse President Wickremesinghe.
In what could be considered a counter-move, the SLPP has informally floated the idea of business magnate and National List MP Dhammika Perera being its candidate. This it did by giving pride of place to Perera at the party’s national convention held in December last year amidst much fanfare.
Since then, Perera has himself taken on the role of an unofficial candidate, holding a series of meetings in major cities promising employment opportunities to thousands of youth through his established network of companies, a strategy that has attracted some degree of public support.
Many interpret Perera’s role as a fallback option for the SLPP and as a tool to gain some leverage in negotiating with President Wickremesinghe with regard to a future political arrangement. If such discussions are unsuccessful, Perera will indeed contest, thereby spoiling the President’s prospects.
For now though, the SLPP is keeping its options open. When asked who their Presidential Candidate would be, SLPP General Secretary Sagara Kariyawasam has said it has “four potential candidates”. Party leader and former President Mahinda Rajapaksa would only go so far say that it is not him.
Unexpected alliances
In this context, it is interesting to note that President Wickremesinghe commands the support of not only the ‘New Alliance’ group led by Yapa and Lansa which has dissociated itself from the Rajapaksa faction of the SLPP but also several others who remain intensely loyal to the Rajapaksa family.
Among them is Minister Prasanna Ranatunga who is also Leader of the House. Ranatunga is the son of Reggie Ranatunga, a former minister who, like Mahinda Rajapaksa, had his political roots in the SLFP. Minister Ranatunga has a close working relationship with President Wickremesinghe.
Speaking this week at a meeting in his home base in Minuwangoda, Ranatunga said the incumbent President is the most suitable person to resolve the economic debacle the country is facing. “We have no chance to try out other candidates, this is not a time to experiment,” the Minister cautioned.
“People elected Presidents to resolve national issues. Mahinda Rajapaksa was elected to eliminate the war. Maithripala Sirisena was elected to ensure good governance. Gotabaya Rajapaksa was elected ensure national security. We need to elect Ranil Wickremesinghe to revive the economy,” he said.
Coming from a leading personality in the SLPP who continues to maintain strong links with the Rajapaksa family, this is an indication that the party is still keeping all its political options open. As long as it feels it cannot win on its own, it is likely to eventually endorse President Wickremesinghe.
The only party which is unencumbered by such issues is the JJB. It maintains momentum in a strategy of contesting on its own with Anura Kumara Dissanayake as its undisputed leader and candidate. The party’s main campaign theme has been eliminating corruption and establishing the rule of law.
JJB’s ascent
The JJB attracts a significant following from voters and has emerged as a serious contender for Government. However, if Presidential Elections are held first, whether Dissanayake can reach the 50 per cent plus one vote mark is a question for a party which has historically underperformed at polls. The JJB is indeed confident, based on the popular belief that the majority of voters are disgruntled and disappointed with the mainstream political parties and are now looking for an alternative. There is some truth in this argument but whether it is of a sufficient magnitude remains the unknown factor.
All this points to an extremely active and exciting few months ahead. There will be many a political somersault during this period and shifting loyalties and forming new alliances will be in fashion as Sri Lanka approaches its most decisive Presidential Elections since the first such poll was held in 1982.
