The hub of terrorism is rapidly changing and moving towards countries facing political instability, conflict, and ecological degradation. The evolution of the global terrorism landscape requires robust evidence-based and data-driven responses, taking into account the complexity of the new security challenges and the need to observe fundamental rights and freedoms, particularly the right to privacy and data protection, and freedom of expression.
The Global Terrorism Index 2023 report provides a comprehensive summary of the key global trends and patterns in terrorism over the last decade. The annual Global Terrorism Index is developed by leading international think tank the Institute of Economics and Peace (IEP) and provides the most comprehensive resource on global terrorism trends.
Last year, terrorism resulted in 6,701 deaths, 38% lower than at their peak in 2015. However, the lethality rate of the two deadliest terrorist groups is increasing. IS, the deadliest, saw an increase of 12%, while al-Shabaab’s lethality rate is at its highest level since 2017, increasing by 32%. This highlights that the effectiveness of these two groups is rising.
Of the 830 million people facing food insecurity globally, 58 percent live in the 20 countries most affected by terrorism. Six of the ten countries most impacted by terrorism are also among the 25 countries with the worst ecological threats and lowest resilience in 2022’s Ecological Threat Report, highlighting the interdependency between ecological degradation and conflict.
About 88 percent of terror attacks and 98 percent of fatalities occurred in conflict-ridden countries. Afghanistan continues 
to be the country most affected by terrorism. Da’esh and its affiliates in Asia and Africa, al-Shabaab and Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimeen (JNIM), who are al-Qaeda affiliates and the Baluchistan Liberation Army (BLA), were the world’s most lethal organizations in 2022.
After the decade-old Syrian civil war and the 20-year US war on terrorism, al-Qaeda and Da’esh have become umbrella organizations to their affiliates spread across Eurasia and Africa. Both of them face a leadership crisis at the center after the killing of al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in a US drone strike and the neutralization of Da’esh leader Abu Ibrahim in a US Special Forces operation. His successor, Abu al-Hasan, was also killed in battle in Syria, according to Da’esh.
The terrorist landscape in India’s Northwest neighbourhood deteriorated, with the Taliban sweeping across the country after the US withdrawal ending their 20-year war on terror. IS-KP and TTP have returned in a massive way. IS-KP is challenging the domestic legitimacy of the Taliban in Afghanistan by targeting Muslim minority communities. The TTP declared a full-blown insurgency and started working in tandem with the militant-separatist BLA to undermine the Pakistani state.
The main concern of Member States is jihadist terrorism and the closely related phenomenon of foreign terrorist fighters who travel to and from conflict zones. The carefully planned attacks continue to demonstrate the elevated threat to the EU from an extremist minority, operationally based in the Middle East, combined with a network of people born and raised in the EU, often radicalized within a short space of time, who have proven willing and able to act as facilitators and active accomplices in terrorism.
Violent extremist organizations have increasingly employed new and emerging technologies for their influence operations and financing. The world now is in a situation where societies are moving towards post-organizational violent extremism enabled by social media, where there is no command and control.
Today extremist propaganda reaches the target demography at the click of a mouse, eventually leading to radicalization. There are a growing number of social media-induced lone-wolf violent extremist attacks of every creed worldwide, from jihadi terrorism in Kashmir and Colombo, anti-Semitic attacks in Texas, and mosque shootings in Christchurch. Block chain technologies and online payment methods are increasingly being observed to be used to syphon funds for terror activities.
White supremacists and neo-fascists increasingly occupy public consciousness and political space. The line between traditional right-wing political parties and the far-right fringe is now blurred as mainstream nationalist political parties increasingly adopt fringe narratives for political gain. UK Independence Party, Front Nationale in France, Alternative for Germany (AfD), Spain’s Vox and Italy’s Lega Nord are some of these political parties. Populist parties have also formed a political group called Identity and Democracy in the European Parliament based on anti-immigration sentiments.
Impact of AI
Artificial Intelligence and 3D printing are two other technologies increasingly being used for propaganda dissemination and printing lethal weapons and ammunition. Although terrorist organizations have, to a certain degree, traditionally tended to employ various forms of “low-tech terrorism” such as firearms, blades and vehicles, terrorism itself is not a stagnant threat. As soon as AI becomes more widespread, the barriers to entry will be lowered by reducing the skills and technical expertise needed to employ it.
The copycat threat is about emulation, recognition, and passing the baton to the next killer. It’s not unique to domestic terrorists: After the 2016 Pulse nightclub shooting, ISIS adherents offered a CD-ROM package of all photos, memes, video, and ISIS articles related to killer Omar Mateen in a push for others to copy his heinous crime.
Regardless of the ideological affiliation, the extremist encouragement for would-be terrorists to copy other killers is at its core a push for them to take the crimes one step further — whether with a higher death toll, greater damage to infrastructure, a longer live stream, new tactics or weapons, or an especially symbolic target. While the terrorist groups have persisted in the cyber sphere with resilience and adaptability, the big tech and social media companies seem less inclined to invest more resources amid a global financial crunch and shrinking profit margins. Consequently, tech firms and governments might be winning the battle of ideas in the short term, but they could lose the war in the long term.
Drone terror
The growth in commercial and personal drone usage has driven rapid developments in drone capabilities. Commercially-driven improvements have included increased range, speed, payload capacity, new control and coordination methods and locomotion manner. As with most dual-use technologies, terrorists have adopted drones to conduct standoff attacks against a variety of targets. The most prescient current technology that will enable future terrorist attacks is the drone. Drones have the ability of providing standoff, which can enable terrorists to conduct multiple attacks simultaneously, rapidly magnifying their overall effect. A terrorist attack is meant to create an atmosphere of fear to influence a target audience—a civilian population.
To those who have been following the non-state actor drone threat, it seems obvious that the actions of entities like Hezbollah, the Islamic State and the Houthis will continue to inspire other non-state actors and proxies to follow suit and take the terror drone threat in new directions.
Though conventional means of guerrilla tactics and financing still dominate the operations of terrorist organizations, unmanned aerial systems such as drones and UAVs have almost become conventional due to their extensive use by terrorists. Around 65 non-state actors worldwide have drone-deploying capabilities. Over the past two decades, terrorists have sought to asymmetrically mirror image their own versions of, new tools and weapons systems that technologically advanced states have used against them. The Israel- Hamas war in Gaza shows how a terrorist organization has the capacity to carry out invasive deadly attacks. The world needs peace in many theatres of conflict.
(The writer is the author of Target Secured- Police Special Task Force)
Dishan Joseph