The Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) under former President Maithripala Sirisena has attracted most attention in the past few weeks as it appears to be disintegrating but other major political parties are also undergoing 
significant changes as the nation await major national elections next year.
These include the United National Party (UNP) led by President Ranil Wickremesinghe, the ruling Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), the main opposition party, the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB), the Jathika Jana Balavegaya (JJB) and three ‘independent’ groups which have parted ways with the SLPP.
This is a reflection of the fragmented nature of the current political landscape and the unpredictability of electoral outcomes at next year’s polls. This climate of uncertainty will drive many politicians to negotiate, seek partners, form alliances with one aim: ensuring their re-election to the next Parliament.
Arguably, the UNP is the party with the least internal divisions. Its leader, President Wickremesinghe is also the leader of the country and is in a position to chart political events such as setting dates for elections which is an advantage that incumbent leaders have historically attempted to exploit.
However, the area of concern for the President is the grassroots organisation of the UNP. Extremely busy with in leading the nation out of an economic crisis while attending to duties both as Executive President and Minister of Finance, he has left the reorganisation of the UNP to his party stalwarts.
Their task is onerous because the UNP was reduced to just over two per cent of the vote at the last general election in 2020. Much of the party’s base vote flowed on to the SJB, which polled nearly 24 per cent. The UNP now has to woo those voters back with minimal representation in Parliament.
Some of the leading lights of the UNP such as Ravi Karunanayake, Naveen Dissanayake and Ruwan Wijewardene are not in the legislature. The party needs to enhance its profile and do so quickly.
One of the strategies for doing this was its annual convention which was originally scheduled for early September. This was postponed. At this convention, it was also proposed to appoint a ‘leadership council’ of second tier leaders for the UNP who would carry forward its program.
Another strategy that is no secret in political circles is the fact that parliamentarians from the SJB- most of whom were once UNP MPs- are being invited back. To date, only Ministers Harin Fernando and Manusha Nanayakkara have returned but many more are likely to have invitations extended.
Strategists in the UNP feel that the SJB was formed only after a clash for the party leadership, when then Deputy Leader Sajith Premadasa decided to breakaway. It makes sense for the UNP to ask SJB MPs to re-join the party as there are hardly any ideological differences between the two camps.
This is the conundrum that SJB leader and Leader of the Opposition Premadasa has to contend with. Already, apart from Ministers Fernando and Nanayakkara, several others elected on the SJB ticket have declared themselves ‘independent,’ Champika Ranawaka and Kumara Welgama among them.
There was also feverish speculation that former Health Minister Rajitha Senaratne may join the Cabinet during the motion of no confidence against incumbent Health Minister Keheliya Rambukwella. That didn’t happen but Senaratne’s name continues to emerge as a possible cross-over.
Another potential flashpoint for SJB Leader Premadasa is the ambitions of Field Marshall Sarath Fonseka. The ex-Army Commander and losing Presidential candidate in 2010 hints time and again that he is prepared to lead the nation in thinly veiled comments made opportunistically to the media.
The most recent example of this came in Parliament last week when, during a verbal spat with former President Sirisena, he said that ‘if I have the authority, I know how to deal with the perpetrators of the Easter attacks.’ It is therefore no secret in the SJB that Fonseka harbours presidential ambitions.
It is perhaps to dampen this enthusiasm more than anything else that Premadasa has gone public stating that he will the SJB candidate at the next Presidential Election. Whether this will embolden Fonseka to seek other avenues to pursue his political ambitions remains to be seen.
Premadasa meanwhile has attempted to consolidate his position by having an ongoing dialogue with the Nidahasa Janatha Sabhawa (NJS) where Dullas Alahapperuma and G.L. Peiris are prominent personalities. It was to Alahapperuma that Premadasa deferred when Parliament elected the President.
Premadasa has formed an excellent rapport with the likes of Peiris and Nalaka Godahewa, the latter previously being a Gotabaya Rajapaksa loyalist. Nevertheless, more groundwork will need to be done for an agreement to be reached between the SJB and the NJS about contesting the presidential polls.
Meanwhile, at the other end of the political spectrum, although being the ruling party, the SLPP is also grappling with its own peculiar problems. At the root of this is the uncertainty about the party’s prospects at the next major national elections, which has led to some MPs to look at alternatives.
Foremost among them are the JNS and the Uttara Lanka Sabhagaya (ULS). Leaders of the ULS, Wimal Weerawansa, Udaya Gammanpila and Vasudeva Nanayakkara have their own ideological framework which makes it difficult for them to align with many of the other mainstream parties.
The ULS hasn’t committed themselves to any alliance among other political parties but they must also know that, if they go it alone at the next Presidential or General Elections, their chances of returning their current MPs to Parliament are bleak. So, it is a matter of time before an alliance is formed.
A third group of SLPP MPs, not aligned with either the NJS or the ULS, is led by former Minister Anura Priyadarshana Yapa. They too haven’t committed themselves to any alliance yet but they will also realise that they have little prospects of success if they were to contest as a separate entity.
The Leadership of the SLPP, in discussions its ideologue Basil Rajapaksa had with President Wickremesinghe, has indicated its concerns about speculation that the Government is attempting to win over some of its party members to form a separate group within the Government.
It must however be noted that President Wickremesinghe has been very careful to maintain cordial relations with the SLPP during his term as President. For example, he has retained almost the entire final Cabinet that served under former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, making only minimal changes.
Both being seasoned politicians, President Wickremesinghe and Basil Rajapaksa would understand that politics is said to be ‘the art of the possible.’ This is very relevant in an electorate where the public mood remains largely unknown and no single party is able to win the confidence of voters.
As matters stand now, if the SLPP and the UNP go their separate ways at the next national election be it a General Election or a Presidential Election, it wouldn’t take a political scientist to determine that neither party will be able to win comfortably. This reality will not be lost on leaders of the two parties.
While no firm commitments have been asked for or given, it seems clear that the way forward for both the SLPP and the UNP is to work together for the foreseeable future. It is likely that party leaders and the stalwarts of both parties will need to discuss how this objective is achieved best.
For the JJB, its challenges are of a different kind. The party reached a peak in its popularity in the lead up to the Local Government Elections in March this year. The polls however were not held and the JJB has since been finding it difficult to sustain that momentum, with no elections due this year.
The main issues facing the JJB are that its claims of corruption and abuse are not backed by a firm plan of action of their own, the ambiguity on their economic policy and its reluctance to own up and apologise to the people for the insurgencies they staged in 1971 and 1989 which still evokes fear.
Thus, it is anyone’s guess as to whether the UNP, SLPP, SJB, or JJB commands more confidence among the masses. Many surveys have suggested that a sizeable number of voters are still undecided. That may well be the case which means that the fate of the country remains in the balance.
