It was around this time last year that the ‘aragalaya’ or protest campaign against former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa began. The first anniversary of the first protest near Rajapaksa’s residence at Mirihana, Nugegoda was on March 31. A year on, this provides an opportune moment for reflection.
The protests lasted for over three months and led to Rajapaksa’s resignation in a series of events that were unprecedented in post-independence Sri Lanka. The initial protest at Mirihana was dispersed, but the arrest of protesters also sparked a wave of anger against then President Rajapaksa. 
The arrested protesters were defended by lawyers of the Bar Association of Sri Lanka. Within a few days isolated protests were being held in many parts of the country, culminating in the setting up of a central protest site at Galle Face in Colombo. This was christened the ‘Gota Go Gama’.
What sustained this protest campaign were the multiple shortages of gas, fuel and electricity that had crippled daily life. Long winded queues for fuel and gas meant that professionals, wage earners and daily breadwinners had to spend time in queues, sometimes for days, to obtain these essential items.
As news reports and video footage of many incidents went viral around the world, deaths of people while staying for long hours in these queues heightened public anger. By the Sinhala and Tamil New Year last year, ‘Gota Go Gama’ was established and was drawing great interest even internationally.
Protests against CoL
Pressure was building on then President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to act. He attempted to do so by effecting several Cabinet reshuffles. He also called an All-Party Conference of parties in Parliament to get the co-operation of the Opposition to resolve the urgent economic crisis that was escalating.
These moves did not yield the expected dividend. However, it was noted that while the main Opposition parties supported the ‘aragalaya’ on principle and made public statements to that effect in Parliament, they did not participate directly in it. This ensured the continuation of the protests.
By early May, the protests had reached a point where there were calls for the Cabinet to resign, if not the President. A statement endorsing similar sentiments was issued by the Mahanayake Theras of the four chapters. These calls led to speculation that Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa would resign.
Tragedy struck on May 9. Supporters of Prime Minister Rajapaksa gathered at Temple Trees, a short distance away from ‘Gota Go Gama’. After a series of ill-advised and inflammatory speeches, these men headed towards Galle Face attacking and demolishing a protest in front of Temple Trees first.
The sequence of events that led to the disaster that followed is still under investigation. Protesters at Gota Go Gama were attacked. News of this spread rapidly throughout the country. Retaliatory attacks, mostly targeting ruling Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) Parliamentarians, took place.
Again, the question as to how hundreds of houses belonging to SLPP Parliamentarians were torched simultaneously at a time of severe fuel shortages, has been the subject of much speculation. Also, Polonnaruwa District MP Amarakeerthi Athukorala was attacked by mobs at Nittambuwa and died.
The events of May 9 made the Government more unstable after then Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa submitted his resignation. This triggered a constitutional clause which, in effect, led to the resignation of the Cabinet. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa also had to appoint a new Prime Minister.
Details of discussions former President Rajapaksa had at that time have now come to light. It is learnt he held talks with both Leader of the Opposition Sajith Premadasa, Field Marshal Sarath Fonseka and then the lone United National Party (UNP) MP in Parliament, Ranil Wickremesinghe.
Premadasa is reported to have laid down conditions if he was to accept the Premiership while Fonseka was reportedly opposed by other members of the Rajapaksa family. Previously six times Prime Minister Wickremesinghe is learnt to have accepted the offer without imposing any conditions.
A new Cabinet was also sworn in. A notable feature was the absence of any members of the Rajapaksa family except the President. In the previous Rajapaksa Cabinet, there were five members of the Rajapaksa family in the Cabinet. The move was aimed at diminishing public resentment.
Financial difficulties
There was however no let up in the economic challenges. The queues and shortages of essential items continued. The ‘aragalaya’ at Galle Face had become a public phenomenon that attracted celebrities and generated worldwide publicity. Political parties continued to refrain from directly engaging in it.
The month of June saw another key development. Bowing to public pressure, SLPP ideologue Basil Rajapaksa resigned from Parliament. He was replaced by business magnate Dhammika Perera who was appointed Minister of Investment Promotion, a move that did not elicit much public support.
As the protests against the Government, albeit with a different Prime Minister and Cabinet continued, protesters planned a massive influx of citizens to Colombo on July 9. The message went out on social media and intelligence services were bracing themselves for a ‘final’ confrontation. 
Protesters converged on Colombo City defying a curfew and using precious fuel to do so. Some trains operated despite orders not to run. What intelligence services expected to be a crowd of about 25,000 turned out to be an estimated half a million people who made their way to the President’s House.
Tragedy was averted when former President Rajapaksa was able to discreetly exit President’s House and then leave the country to the Maldive Islands, thus ensuring his safety. The President’s resignation was received on July 13. Prime Minister Wickremesinghe became Acting President.
As per the Constitution, Parliament convened on July 21 to elect a President. Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa announced his candidature but pulled out in support of Dullas Alahapperuma. In the final count, Ranil Wickremesinghe emerged victorious with 134 votes and a majority of over 50 votes.
Since then, several major changes have occurred in the political landscape. President Wickremesinghe has demonstrated great political dexterity in being able to work with the Cabinet chosen by Gotabaya Rajapaksa with the exception of former Foreign Minister G. L. Peiris who was not re-appointed.
The President’s mantra has been restoring the economy which he has said on many occasions is his utmost priority. His signal achievement has been securing a vital bailout package from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which was resisted by former President Rajapaksa.
LG polls
Local Government (LG) elections were due in March but have been postponed indefinitely. The President and the Government have been criticised for this but the President maintains that the economy and not elections is his major concern. The Opposition has challenged the postponement in courts.
There are indications that the two major Opposition parties, the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB) and the National People’s Power (NPP) which ran parallel but distinctly different campaigns for the Local Government polls have passed the peak of their waves of popularity and are now on the wane.
Many SLPP Parliamentarians and ministers have commended the President on his focus on the economy and for being able to push through an economic reform agenda that includes unpopular measures such as higher taxes, higher electricity rates and the privatisation of State enterprises.
Opposition Parliamentarians, notably from the SJB, have been endorsing the President’s decision to reach out to the IMF. This has led to speculation that they are preparing the stage for a cross-over of SJB Parliamentarians to the Government. Such speculation has heightened in recent days.
The President has also been successful in keeping at bay the requests to appoint former SLPP ministers, some with dubious credentials, to the Cabinet. With the power to dissolve Parliament at his disposal, it is likely that President Wickremesinghe will maintain this stance for some time to come.
Presidential elections are due by October 2024. As per current constitutional provisions, President Wickremesinghe cannot call a poll earlier by virtue of being a ‘stand-in’ President. However, he can do so if he enacts a constitutional amendment which should have support from the Opposition.
The next Presidential election could be a three-way race between President Wickremesinghe, SJB Leader Sajith Premadasa and NPP Leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake. It can also become the first Presidential poll in Sri Lanka where a candidate does not win over 50 per cent of votes at first count.
President Wickremesinghe will be hoping that the changes that he is bringing about in the economy will trickle down to the masses by late 2024 and get him over the line at an election. However that election is about eighteen months away- and that is a very, very, long time in Sri Lankan politics.
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