Earth is warming from the North Pole to the South Pole. The glacier ‘OK’ (Okjökull) was the first glacier in Iceland to disappear due to climate change. A monument was placed at the site in memory of the lost glacier. The Amazon forest which is considered as the lungs of the world which produces 20 percent of our planet’s oxygen and which currently accounts for around a quarter of the CO2 removal provided by the world’s forests each year, endured massive fire. All this recent news is a clear indication of approaching disaster.
The staggering effects of climate change, particularly in the agriculture sector, poses a major and an increasing threat to global food security. With the anticipated effects of climate change such as increases in temperature, increases in CO2 and changing patterns of rainfall, there is a high possibility of considerable decline in the world’s crop production. Yet the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) expects to achieve food security for all people and promote sustainable agriculture while doubling the incomes of small-scale food producers by 2030. Achieving those targets amidst the threats of climate change certainly is a challenging task.
The severity of the effects of climate change varies across the world. The worst affected areas are the developing countries as the economies of these countries are mainly dependent on natural resources which are again vulnerable to climate variations. Even among the developing countries, South Asian countries, consisting of nearly one-third of people who are still living in poverty, will face huge economic, social and environmental damage, compromising their growth potential and poverty reduction efforts.
As a small island in the tropical region, Sri Lanka has no chance of escaping the evil effects of climate change. Some of the negative consequences of climate change that have already been felt by Sri Lanka’s agriculture sector include a slow and steady increase of ambient temperature, high-intensity erosive rainfall, salt water intrusion to soils and aquifers, and ever-increasing extreme droughts and floods. In addition, information on observed and projected changes suggests that wet areas will become wetter and dry areas will be drier due to changes in the rainfall distribution pattern in Sri Lanka.
Crop production is highly sensitive to changes in climate and a substantial proportion of the population of the country depends on livelihoods directly or indirectly related to agriculture. Across different agro-ecological regions and geographical locations, a number of crop production systems and associated farming communities with varied socio-economic status can be identified. Most of these farming communities consist of smallholder subsistence farmers who have lower capacities for adaptation to climate change and are hence exposed to greater levels of
vulnerability. Thus, it is very important to consider this issue as an urgent matter and act promptly to increase the resilience of the respective crop production systems and associated farming communities.
Though the annual rainfall variability has increased almost all over the country, rainfall variability is higher in the Dry Zone than in the other parts of the country. The North–East monsoon is the major source of water for the Dry Zone of the country. However, as per climate predictions, rainfall received from the North–East monsoon will decrease by 34 percent by the 2050s. Predicted decrease in rainfall in Dry Zone areas with the temperature increase will have serious impacts in potential soil moisture deficits which will determine the irrigation requirement for paddy and other field crops. Therefore, agricultural activities in the Dry Zone, which is considered the food production basket of the country, will be severely affected.
Adapting to changing climate
In adaptation planning, vulnerability assessment is a useful tool that can improve the decision-making of policymakers in the formulation of rational and effective strategies. Vulnerability assessment describes the seriousness of potential threats from known hazards and the level of vulnerability at household level and community level. A number of adaptation programmes have failed in their objectives as they have not correctly identified the vulnerability at grassroots level. Though a considerable number of studies have been undertaken on climate change vulnerability at global and regional levels, less attention has been given to the micro-level situation. Hence, to formulate comprehensive and efficient adaptation and mitigation strategies, identification of more vulnerable farming communities and factors that contribute to increasing the vulnerability is necessary. Therefore, the Hector Kobbekaduwa Agrarian Research and Training Institute (HARTI) conducted a study focusing on the comparative vulnerability of the farming communities attached to main field crop production systems operating in the Dry Zone of Sri Lanka. It further studied the factors contributing to the vulnerability at household level and at crop production system level.
Policy-level initiatives
As communities growing the same crop in different geographical areas under different irrigation systems and in different cropping seasons face different levels of vulnerability, the cultivation planning, targeting adaptation programmes and decision-making on resource allocation at national, provincial and district levels should be undertaken carefully, considering the information available on relative vulnerability of each crop production system.
Since assured water supply throughout the cultivation period is a key determinant of vulnerability, allocating more funds to develop irrigation infrastructure and supplementary irrigation facilities and to strengthen water management mechanisms to increase the availability and the efficiency of irrigation water to farmers should be given more attention.
In addition, promotion of high-efficiency irrigation systems to increase water productivity will deliver positive results in terms of combatting climate change impacts, as well as increasing the profitability of farming activities under different crop production systems.
The share of the non-agricultural income of the household has a significant role to play in reducing climate vulnerability. Hence, conducting training programmes to introduce and promote potential livelihood options available in the area that are less sensitive to impacts of climate change and climate extremes is really important.
Access to information positively affects reducing the vulnerability through assisting more precise decision-making. Conducting training programmes on receiving and utilisation of updates on climate and weather parameters, availability of and access to agricultural inputs and novel and improved technologies will increase the adaptive capacity of farming communities and subsequently reduce climate vulnerability.
Farmer-level initiatives
In face of this challenging situation, farmers themselves have an important role to play to succeed in farming. They should be more vigilant and adhere more to the cropping calendars and utilise the information provided by the relevant agencies about selecting the right crops, commencement of cultivation, weather forecasts, and so on. There are several mobile apps on agricultural information developed and available for interested parties to use. Farmers can use these resources to find solutions to their farming issues, and share their lessons, and experiences. Capacity-building of office bearers of farmer organisations and innovative farmers is a must to popularise such technologies among farmers and deliver positive results. Since farmer organisations are getting regular updates from the authorities on important cultivation decisions, maintaining an active relationship with farmer organisations will benefit them largely.
In years to come, issues due to climate change will get more complex and only the collective effort of policymakers, officers from line agencies, and the respective farming communities who utilise scientific findings and novel technologies together with our age-old traditional knowledge will ensure the food security of the country, once renowned as the ‘Granary of the East’.
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