Russia has announced a three day ceasefire in the Ukrainian city of Mariupol to allow its civilians to flee to safety.
The ceasefire end on May 9 Russia's Victory Day in World War Two, considered a most important day in the Russian calendar, which marks the Russian victory over Nazi Germany, when 26 million Russians who lost their lives in the world war, considered the Great Patriotic War in Russia.
There is much fear in the West that Russian President Vladimir Putin would on this day announce an invasion of Ukraine, away from the “special military operation” there, and announce a mass mobilization of Russian forces, declaring a war against Ukraine, and authorizing the Kremlin to draft conscripts and mobilize reserve forces.
The US State Department spokesperson Ned Price told reporters on Monday that the U.S. has “good reason to believe that the Russians will do everything they can to use” its May 9 Victory Day for propaganda purposes.
It “would be a great irony if Moscow used the occasion of ‘Victory Day’ to declare war, which in itself would allow them to surge conscripts in a way they're not able to do now, in a way that would be tantamount to revealing to the world that their war effort is failing, that they are floundering in their military campaign and military objectives,” Price said.
British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace thought citing recent statements from Putin in which the Russian leader pushed the Kremlin's rhetoric that the invasion seeks to “de-Nazify” Ukraine.
Putin is “probably going to declare on this May Day that we're now at war with the world's Nazis and we need to mass mobilize the Russian people,” Wallace said during an appearance on LBC radio.
The Kremlin on Wednesday called analysis that Putin would declare an all-out war against Ukraine “nonsense.”
“There is no chance of that. It's nonsense,” Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. “It is not true.”
Meanwhile, Western observers are keenly watching Vladimir Putin’s public appearances for signs of ill health, amid increasing rumours that the Russian President is due to undergo surgery, possibly for cancer, and would hand over his duties to a trusted deputy.
Zelensky appeals to UN
With over 300 Ukrainians were evacuated from the battered city of Mariupol on Wednesday, President Volodymyr Zelensky asked the UN to help to rescue the remaining wounded, trapped underneath the giant Azovstal steel plant.
Speaking to the nation in his nightly address, Zelensky said 344 people were evacuated from Mariupol and nearby areas and headed northwest for the city of Zaporizhzhia, which is controlled by Kyiv.
But earlier in the day, he also pleaded with UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres to help rescue the wounded who are still sheltering at the plant.
“The lives of the people who remain there are in danger,” Zelensky told Guterres by phone.
In a statement, the Red Cross said it was “relieved that more lives have been spared” and called for renewed efforts to continue evacuations from the region “in light of the immense suffering of the civilians.”
EU ban on Russian oil
The European Union has proposed some of its toughest measures yet against Russia, including a total ban on oil imports and sanctions on war crimes suspects.
EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the package was aimed at maximizing pressure on Russia while minimizing damage to Europe.
Russian crude oil would be phased out within six months, she said.
Hungary has rejected the proposal as unacceptable and the Czech and Slovak Governments want a transition period.
The EU has been focusing for weeks on how to wean itself off Russian oil and gas. It has already pledged to reduce gas imports by two-thirds by the end of 2022, and now plans to phase out crude oil over six months and refined products by the end of 2022.
“We will make sure that we phase out Russian oil in an orderly fashion,” the Commission President said.
But Hungarian Government Spokesman Zoltan Kovacs said his country would veto it in its current form: “They know exactly that what they are proposing is against Hungarian interests... and if we do that we are completely going to ruin the Hungarian economy.”
Slovakia as well as Hungary currently relies on Russian oil and under the initial proposal would be given until the end of 2023 to find alternative suppliers.
Slovakia's Economy Minister said his country wanted a three-year transition period, while Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala said he would also seek a two-to-three year exemption to tackle problems with pipeline capacity.
Last year, Russia supplied the EU with a quarter of its oil imports, and the Netherlands and Germany were the biggest buyers.
The Dutch Government has said it wants to halt all Russian fossil fuel imports by the end of this year and Germany has drastically reduced its reliance on Russian oil imports, down from 35% to 12%.
The UK, which is no longer in the EU, is already phasing out Russian oil, which accounts for 8% of its imports.
German Economics Minister Robert Habeck has said the six-month transition period gives Berlin long enough to make the change.
The problem for Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic is that they are all landlocked and rely on their neighbours for fuel supplies. Czech Special Envoy for Energy Security Vaclav Bartuska told the BBC that Europe was currently trying to redraw the map of energy supplies as fast as it could: “We want to get rid of Russian crude once and for all, and we want to be absolutely sure there'll be no need to go back and ask Russia again.”
Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow was working on various options in response to the planned embargo. Sanctions were a double-edged sword for the Europeans and others, he said, as the cost for European citizens would increase every day. Oil prices rose by 5% on news of the EU plan to US$ 110 a barrel of Brent Crude.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said in a video briefing on social media that the gradual EU ban on oil was “better than nothing”. Any country that opposed the oil embargo was complicit in Russia's crimes in Ukraine, he said, whatever their arguments.
Targeting War Crimes
As well as seeking a ban on Russian oil, the EU Commission President announced that sanctions would be imposed on military officers involved in suspected war crimes in Bucha and Mariupol.
“This sends another important signal to all perpetrators of the Kremlin's war: We know who you are, and you will be held accountable,” Ms von der Leyen told the European Parliament on Wednesday.
There are plans for a broad ban on three of the biggest Russian state-run broadcasters.
“We have identified these TV channels as mouthpieces that amplify Putin's lies and propaganda aggressively,” Ms von der Leyen said.
Although the three networks were not named, they are thought to include the widely watched Russian-language Rossiya and RTR Planeta channels of State-owned operator VGTRK. The EU has already suspended two networks, RT and Sputnik, that broadcast in English, German and Spanish.
A ban would also be imposed on providing European services to Russian companies through accountants, lawyers and spin-doctors, she said.
Earlier sanctions have already hit Russian banks but the biggest bank of all, Sberbank, has been left off the list because it was considered necessary for paying for Russian gas. Sberbank makes up over a third of Russia's banking sector and is now set to be removed from the SWIFT global financial messaging system. Two other Russian banks are included in the proposals.
Previous sanctions packages have also targeted a number of individuals linked to the Kremlin and the invasion, and the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Kirill, is said to be on the latest list. He has given his full support to the war, prompting Pope Francis to warn him not to become “Putin's altar boy”.
The EU would also remove Sberbank – Russia’s largest bank – along with Credit Bank of Moscow and Russian Agricultural Bank from the Swift payment system, under the draft sanctions package.
“Putin wanted to wipe Ukraine from the map. He will clearly not succeed,” Von der Leyen said. “On the contrary, Ukraine has risen up in unity. And it is his own country, Russia, that is sinking.”
The EU is preparing to be the main funder of Ukraine’s economic recovery from the war, with billions already committed, but Von der Leyen called on the US and others to match those funds.
Ukraine’s GDP was expected to fall by 30% to 50% this year alone, she said, with the IMF estimating that Ukraine would require €5bn a month “to keep the country running, paying pensions, salaries and basic services”.
Strikes against Western arms
There are increasing reports that Russia is stepping up airstrikes on key Ukrainian supply lines delivering large stocks of Western arms to the country, including on railway lines and warehousing.
With Moscow and Kyiv locked in a race to shape the conditions for the current phase of the war in Ukraine, the rapid and growing flow of weapons supplied by Ukraine’s Western backers has become an increased focus for both sides, the UK’s Observer reported.
On Tuesday Russian airstrikes hit six train stations in central and Western Ukraine as the Kremlin focused its attacks upon Ukrainian infrastructure, including electrical and water supply substations.
A Russian cruise missile also hit a hangar in Odessa housing Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones as well as missiles and ammunition from the US and Europe, according to the Russian Ministry of Defence.
The Pentagon Spokesperson, John Kirby, noted that, in the past, Russian Forces have not had a good record of hitting what they were aiming at.
“I would just remind you that their ability to target with precision has been less than advertised throughout this entire war. They are not good at precision strikes,” Kirby said, adding that the delivery of US and allied weapons was not seriously affected.
“The flow into the region continues at an incredible pace, and the flow of materials from the region into Ukraine also continues every single day,” he said. “Those weapons, those systems, are getting into Ukrainian hands.”
He suggested that the weapons flows were being sustained by having many alternative supply routes which were continually being changed.
As sources indicated that the UK intends to supply Kyiv with cargo drones to carry supplies on the battlefields in the East and South, the flow of Western weapons heading for Ukraine was turning into a flood amid US fears of Russian plans to annex the separatist territories of Donetsk and Luhansk in the East, and the Kherson region in the South. The early focus of weapons supplies to Ukraine was initially small arms and defensive equipment but that has changed in recent weeks, not least after the announcement by US President Joe Biden of a $33bn (£26bn) support package for Ukraine, including US$ 20bn in military aid.
Speaking last month, Biden talked of the need for the increased supply of heavier weapons to Ukraine, describing it as a “critical window” as Russia shifted its focus to the East.
The supply of weapons to Ukraine has been given a boost after the Ukrainian military experienced shortages and stockpiles of ammunition had dwindled.
But it has also been driven by many Western leaders, including President Biden and Boris Johnson, stating the threat posed by Russia requires that it be “weakened”.
Russia - Israel on clash
Russia accusing Israel of supporting the “neo-Nazi regime” in Kyiv has escalated a diplomatic row with one of the few close US allies - Israel - that decided not to join in sanctions against the Kremlin or send lethal military aid to Ukraine.
The dispute over remarks by Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, who said in an interview that Adolf Hitler “had Jewish blood” and that the “most rabid antisemites tend to be Jews”, has threatened to unsettle Israel’s careful position over Russia’s war in Ukraine.
On Monday, Israel summoned Russia’s ambassador to the foreign ministry and its Foreign Minister, Yair Lapid, called Lavrov’s remarks “unforgivable and outrageous … as well as a terrible historical error.”
Lapid wrote: “Jews did not murder themselves in the Holocaust. The lowest level of racism against Jews is to accuse Jews themselves of antisemitism.”
On Tuesday, Russia’s Foreign Ministry doubled down on Lavrov’s words, accusing Lapid of making “antihistorical” remarks about the Holocaust that “largely explain the course of the current Israeli Government in supporting the neo-Nazi regime in Kyiv.
“Unfortunately, history knows tragic examples of Jewish cooperation with the Nazis,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
The Hitler comments appear to have added to the pressure for Israel to abandon its attempts to maintain a neutral stance on the Russian war in Ukraine, a position that has angered its US allies.
Since the war broke out, Israel has set up a field hospital in Western Ukraine, provided humanitarian supplies, and protective vests and helmets for the Ukrainian Army. It has so far refrained from sending more substantial military aid or imposing sanctions on Russia. Israel has a delicate relationship with Russia, as both have military interests in Syria.
As the conflict drags on and more evidence of atrocities committed by Russian Forces against civilians has come to light, Israeli criticism has become more vocal, with Lapid last month accusing Russia of war crimes.
In an interview with Ynet published on Monday evening, he said of his counterpart’s allegations: “That angers me not only as foreign minister but also as the son of my father, who was in the ghetto in Budapest. It wasn’t Jews who put him in the ghetto. The Nazis put him there. The Nazis persecuted the Jews and killed six million Jews. The Ukrainians aren’t Nazis, only the Nazis were Nazis.”
The Israeli daily Haaretz reported on Tuesday that military and political establishments were considering bolstering assistance to Ukraine in the wake of the diplomatic row. The list of items that can be sent to Ukraine will be reviewed in the next few days, the newspaper said.
But according to a quoted source in the Haaretz report, Israel will shy away from sending advanced weaponry or defensive technology, such as the missile defence systems President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has asked the Knesset to supply. New shipments of military equipment are likely to be “symbolic”, the source said, in keeping with Israel’s existing policy of avoiding antagonizing Moscow.
Israel’s Western allies have been pressuring the country to increase its support for Ukraine since the war broke out in February. Officials are also reportedly worried that Israel’s continued balancing act between Russia and the West could hurt the arms industry by sending the signal that Israel could also sit out future conflicts.
Analysts said Lavrov’s inflammatory remarks, which threatened to antagonize one of the few Western countries still willing to engage with Russia, were indicative of the “radicalisation” of much of the Russian Government and the lack of coherency to its goals in Ukraine.
Clashes at Jerusalem
Clashes erupted between Israelis and Palestinians at Jerusalem's Al-Aqsa mosque compound on Thursday, after a 10-day cooling of tensions at the holy site, Israeli police said. They had repelled “dozens of rioters” who had been “throwing stones and other objects” at the Security Forces.
An AFP correspondent said there was a large police presence in front of the mosque, while the Palestinian Red Crescent had yet to report any casualties from the violence.
The clashes came on the anniversary of Israel's 1948 Independence and followed a tense period in which the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, the Jewish festival of Passover and the Christian holiday of Easter overlapped.
Since mid-April, clashes between Israeli Police and Palestinians have wounded nearly 300 at the flashpoint Al-Aqsa mosque compound. The site is Islam's third-holiest. It is also Judaism's holiest place, known to Jews as the Temple Mount.
Palestinians have been angered by an uptick in Jewish visits to the compound, where by long-standing convention Jews may visit but are not allowed to pray.
Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid has said the Jewish state “will not change” this status quo.
Last week, the Gaza Strip's Islamist rulers Hamas threatened Israel with rockets and synagogue attacks if Israeli Forces carried out further raid.
India/France on Russia
India and France on Wednesday called for “an immediate cessation of hostilities” in Ukraine, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi again stopping short of condemning Russia’s invasion of its neighbour.
India, which imports much of its military hardware from Russia, has long walked a diplomatic tightrope between the West and Moscow – notably refusing to denounce the latter or vote against it at the United Nations over its actions in Ukraine.
“France and India expressed their deep concern over the humanitarian crisis and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine,” Modi and French President Emmanuel Macron said in a joint statement after they met in Paris for talks and a working dinner.
“Both countries unequivocally condemned the fact that civilians have been killed in Ukraine, and called for an immediate cessation of hostilities in order for the two sides to come together to promote dialogue and diplomacy, and to put an immediate end to the suffering of the people.”
However, only France condemned “Russian Forces’ illegal and unjustified aggression against Ukraine”.
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