The US House of Representatives voted this week to impeach President Donald Trump after nearly 12 hours of debate. The impeachment is for his conduct toward Ukraine and his refusal to cooperate with the House inquiry.
This makes him only the third president in U.S. history to be impeached, which could lead to his remove from office.
Democrats had more than enough votes to approve the two articles of impeachment against Trump for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. This will now lead to a trial in the Republican-led Senate, where a two-thirds vote would be required to remove the president from office.
With the strong Republican support Trump has in the Senate, it is most unlikely that the Senate, which conducts the impeachment trial, as the political jury, would vote to impeach him.
However, the impeachment proceedings could be a major political threat to Donald Trump as he faces the election next year for his second term of the presidency. The voter and opinion polls, especially in the Republican dominated areas that helped him win in 2016, have shown a decline in support, while the rival Democrats obtained a majority in the House of Representatives elections earlier this year.
The case against President Trump as presented by the Democrats is the allegation that Trump tried to leverage a White House meeting and military aid, sought by Ukraine to combat Russian military aggression, to pressure Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zalinski to launch an investigation on former Vice President Joe Biden and his son Hunter Biden, as well as reports that that Kyiv conspired with Democrats to interfere in the 2016 presidential election.
The White House has denounced the impeachment vote, with press secretary Stephanie Grisham accusing Democrats of seeking to “improperly influence” the 2020 polls campaign — a charge that Democrats have frequently made against the president himself.
The 230 votes obtained for the impeachment is the most votes received for any impeachment of a US president. Despite numerous impeachment investigations and votes to impeach a few presidents by the House of Representatives, only three presidents in U.S. history have been impeached by the House: They are Presidents Andrew Johnson (1868), Bill Clinton (1999), and now Donald Trump. Neither Andrew Johnson nor Bill Clinton were convicted in the Senate and were not removed from office. Donald Trump now awaits trial by the Senate.
Impeachment proceedings against President Richard Nixon began, but he resigned before the actual debate on the floor of the House began. Every President elected since 1980 has been the subject of at least one resolution introduced into Congress with the purpose of impeachment.
Johnson and UK politics
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson who obtained a huge majority in the House of Commons in the recent election, with leaving the European Union (EU) through Brexit as his main slogan, is now likely to have new clashes with the EU on his announcements to further expedite the exit process.
He plans to amend the EU Withdrawal Bill, already passed by the Commons, with a more robust Brexit intent, to explicitly prohibit any extension to transitional arrangements that are due to expire at the end of next year – 2020, ensuring that UK’s break with Europe will be swift and total.
There are protests from the EU that the complex free trade agreements can take up to a decade to complete and could not be done in 12 months. This is seen as a new cliff-edge to the exit from the EU, and a renewal of the crises that were seen before Johnson’s election. Analysts both in the UK and EU see this as a new path to Johnson’s earlier boasted “No Deal” exit. Boris Johnson, with his new parliamentary majority is moving towards political strategy that could have a major negative effect on future relations with the European Union, the closest neighbour and largest trading partner of the UK. He could also be moving to new trade agreements with the US, that was part of the Labour opposition during the recent election.
With Johnson’s Tory victory the UK is also facing a major threat of a new call for an independence referendum by Scotland. The Sottish National Party (SNP) obtained a huge majority, just like the Tories in the UK, and has strengthened the SNP and its leader Nicola Sturgeon’s call for a new referendum on Scotland’s break with the UK.
The Scots voted for Brexit at the original referendum and has increased its regional strength in both national elections since then. UK PM Boris Johnson is wholly against a freedom referendum in Scotland but is facing strong action from the SNP.
Meanwhile the Labour Party that suffered the worst defeat in many decades is wholly divided, with Jeromy Corbyn due to leave the leadership early next year, and many lining up to grab the party leadership.
There is heavy criticism of Jeremy Corbyn’s left wing policies, with former PM Tony Blair among the strongest critics. Labour now must think of new policies to win back the many traditional Labour seats that were won by the Tories in the recent election.
Indian protests spread
Protests continue in many parts of India, often turning violent, against the Citizenship Amendment Act passed week by Parliament.
Many protests have taken place at or around universities, with both students and others joining, with many arrests taking place and large numbers of people detained as the opposition to the new law spreads in India.
Indian states such as Bengal and Kerala - ruled by parties that oppose the Citizenship Amendment Act - have declared they would not implement the law, although passed by Parliament, and police action has been severe on protests.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi is strongly opposed to the protests against the new law that offers citizenship to non-Muslims from three neighbouring countries - Bangladesh, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Mr. Modi said the law “will have no effect on citizens of India, including Hindus, Muslims, Sikhs, Jains, Christians and Buddhists”.
Earlier this week, Mr. Modi sought to calm tensions in a series of tweets saying, “this is the time to maintain peace, unity and brotherhood”.
He has told supporters at a rally on Tuesday that the opposition was “spreading lies and rumours”, “instigating violence” and “used its full force to create an atmosphere of illusion and falsehood”.
The country’s ruling Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government says the law will protect people from persecution, but critics say it is part of a “Hindu nationalist” agenda to marginalise India's more than 200 million Muslims. There are fears that extensive documentation needed to prove citizen registration needs could lead to Muslims being made stateless.
Meanwhile, India’s Supreme Court has refused to stay the new law but said it will take up a clutch of petitions against a new citizenship law next month, as anger against it grows. The federal government has been told to prepare a response to the petitions filed.
China – Hong Kong - US
Protesters and police clashed again in Hong Kong over the weekend, after two weeks of relative calms, as the country's Chief Executive travelled to Beijing for talks on current developments.
Hong Kong police fired tear gas in late night street clashes with anti-government protesters, in the run-up to a potentially pivotal meeting between Hong Kong's Chief Executive Carrie Lam and China’s President in Beijing this week. Carrie Lam met China's premier Li Keqiang who said the city faced an unprecedented and challenging situation, and the administrative government must continue its efforts, end violence and stop the chaos in accordance with the law and restore order.
With Carrie Lam meeting President Xi Jinping there is speculation the visit could yield fresh directives on the city's political crisis, including a possible reshuffle. When the two previously met in Shanghai in early November, Xi expressed “high trust” in Lam despite the turmoil.
Hong Kong remains embroiled in its worst political crisis in decades since June, with anti-government protests posing a populist challenge to China. The unrest has also complicated ties between China and the United States at a time of heightened tensions, including over trade. Meanwhile the relations between US and China worsened after the UN Congress passed a law that threatens Hong Kong’s special economic status, in support of its pro-democracy protesters.
China said it would “hit back forcefully” at the United States fooling adoption of this law, by the US House and Senate, bringing pressure on Beijing to reduce tensions after the many months of mass protests in Hong Kong.
Beijing responded furiously to the US bipartisan support for the bill, which China’s foreign ministry said “confuses black and white in disregard of facts … grossly interferes in China's internal affairs, which fully reveals the ill intentions of some people in the United States to mess up Hong Kong and contain China's development.”
The bill would, among other actions, require the US to sanction Chinese officials deemed responsible for “undermining basic freedoms in Hong Kong” and require the US president to annually review Hong Kong’s special economic status.
Turkey – US
President Trump's administration has rejected a US Senate resolution recognising the Armenian genocide, just a day after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened to recognise the killing of Native Americans as genocide, in retaliation.
The Senate move was rejected by the State Department indicating that US position on the matter did not change. The US Senate has passed a resolution unanimously to recognise the Armenian genocide as a matter of foreign policy, in a rare showing of bipartisanship on a deeply divisive issue despite the Trump administration's objections. It marked the first time that the US Congress had formally designated the 1915 killings of an estimated 1.5 million Armenians at the hands of the Ottoman Empire as genocide.
“To overlook human suffering is not who we are as a people,” said Senator Robert Menendez, a Democrat from New Jersey who co-sponsored the legislation alongside Texas Republican senator Ted Cruz.
Following the Senate vote, Mr. Erdogan had threatened to recognise as genocide, the killing of Native Americans by European settlers in America, as they moved across the country and displaced and killed entire populations.
“We should oppose [the US] by reciprocating such decisions in parliament. And that is what we will do,” Mr. Erdogan in an interview on the pro-government A Haber news channel.
“Can we speak about America without mentioning (Native Americans)? It is a shameful moment in US history,” he continued. In its statement, the State Department pointed to Mr. Trump's April 24 comments, which fell on the Global Armenian Remembrance Day. During his statement, Mr. Trump recognised that over a million and a half Armenians were “deported, massacred or marched to their deaths” under the rule of the Ottoman Empire.
He did not describe the events as genocide. While former President Barack Obama described the events as genocide as a candidate in 2008, his administration later assured the Turkish government that it did not support a resolution recognising the killings as genocide.
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