A candid decision still awaited! | Daily News

A candid decision still awaited!

The thrust and parry of politics continues among the major political parties in anticipation of presidential elections later this year and there is a renewed quest for forging new political alliances.

President Maithripala Sirisena has come to realise the importance of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) of which he is the leader forming an alliance with the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). The President was nursing ambitions of contesting as a ‘common’ candidate for both parties but that is now becoming an increasingly remote possibility.

That is because the SLPP has all but confirmed Gotabaya Rajapaksa as its candidate. A formal announcement to this effect is likely to be made when the party holds its convention on August 11. On this date, Opposition Leader Mahinda Rajapaksa is also due to formally take over the leadership of the new party which has its symbol, the lotus bud or the ‘pohottuwa’.

For now though, Rajapaksa has been reluctant to proclaim his younger sibling and former Defence Secretary as the presidential candidate, going only so far as to say that the SLPP will field ‘a candidate who will win the election’.

There was a flurry of activity in the courts last week where charges were filed in cases where Gotabaya Rajapaksa could be a person of interest. There was speculation that this was a ‘pressure tactic’ to compel Gotabaya Rajapaksa to stand down or at least force the SLPP to reconsider its nominee. However, the SLPP remains quite firm on its decision to stand by Gotabaya Rajapaksa as its candidate barring of course, a definite legal impediment against his candidature such as a conviction.

The SLPP believes that it has right to call the shots in any dialogue it conducts with the SLFP. This is based on the last national elections held in the country which was the local government elections conducted in February last year. At that poll the SLPP, then a fledgling party, emerged victorious, the United National Party (UNP) came second and the SLFP came a distant third with just over ten per cent of the vote.

In Parliament too, the vast majority of parliamentarians elected under the banner of the United Peoples’ Freedom Alliance (UPFA) now support the Joint Opposition which is the parliamentary arm of the SLPP. Only a handful of parliamentarians have stayed loyal to President Sirisena and among them, some are known to have an ongoing dialogue with the SLPP.

SLPP convention

In these circumstances, the SLPP is negotiating with the SLFP from a position of strength, the rationale being that President Sirisena and the SLFP needs the support of the SLPP much more than the SLPP and Opposition Leader Mahinda Rajapaksa needs the support of the SLFP.

If the two parties enter into some form of agreement prior to August 11, the date of the SLPP convention, and the SLPP announces their candidate on that day, that would signify that the SLFP and President Sirisena would have accepted what appears to have become a fait accompli- the candidature of Gotabaya Rajapaksa at the presidential election later this year.

It is no secret that President Sirisena, taking into consideration the prospect that he may not be a candidate at the election, sought the option of remaining in office until May next year. That was because he had received legal advice that his second term of office, determined by the Supreme Court to be five years, began only in May 2015 when the 19th Amendment was passed in to law. The President has now been advised against seeking this clarification from the Supreme Court.

Faced with these circumstances, President Sirisena has to evaluate the other options left at his disposal. He could, of course, always contest the election as the SLFP candidate, running against both the SLPP and UNP candidates, but he has been strongly advised against this. The President, after attaining the highest office in the land, wouldn’t wish to go down in history as the incumbent who finished third in a presidential contest.

In negotiating with the SLPP however, the President would seek to secure what his position would be in the event that party securing victory. It is worthwhile noting that in these discussions, the President does have some bargaining power.

It is well recognised that, under the ‘winner takes it all’ form of contest at the presidential election, a candidate has to secure at least one vote more than fifty per cent of the votes cast, to be declared a winner at the first count. In all of Sri Lanka’s seven previous presidential elections, the winners did so, the closest election being in 2005 when Mahinda Rajapaksa defeated Ranil Wickremesinghe. If there is no clear majority of more than fifty per cent on first count, second preferences are counted.

President Sirisena and the SLFP will argue that the SLPP definitely requires the support of the SLFP to secure a majority of more than fifty per cent at first count and there is some merit to that argument. SLFP parliamentarians supporting President Sirisena do have a substantial share of votes in their electorates, in addition to the President’s own support base in the Polonnaruwa district and in what is likely to be a close contest, every vote is crucial.

That is also more so when there are some predictions that the vote of minority communities in the North and East as well as in the hill country and the rest of the country may not accrue to a SLPP candidate, particularly if it was to be Gotabaya Rajapaksa.

It has been noted that even in 2010, when Mahinda Rajapaksa won a resounding victory with nearly 58 per cent of the vote, the districts of Jaffna, Vanni, Batticaloa, Digamadulla, Trincomalee as well as Nuwara Eliya voted overwhelmingly for his rival, Sarath Fonseka.

It has also been recognised that in the aftermath of the Easter Sunday attacks, some of the hard-line statements made by stalwarts of the SLPP and its allied parties have contributed towards the party losing further support from the minority communities.

A case in point was the fast unto death launched by Athuraliye Rathana Thera. Although elected from the United National Front (UNF), the monk now functions as an independent parliamentarian and received wholehearted endorsement from SLPP leaders during his fast which led to the resignation of all Muslim ministers- and, quite possibly cost the SLPP the support of that community.

SLFP and SLPP deliberations

Similarly, a campaign was launched against a Muslim doctor in Kurunegala district who is alleged to have performed sterilisations under the guise of conducting caesarean operations. Police have informed court that no charges have been proved against this doctor who continues to be detained.

Again, SLPP politicians were at the forefront of the campaign against this doctor, which the Muslim community has watched in anguish. Such concerns about the trajectory of the minority vote will be taken into account when the SLFP and the SLPP engage in their final deliberations.

Ironically, these are the same concerns that have given hope to the UNP. The party finds itself in a strange an unprecedented situation in the lead up to the presidential election.

It is in government and therefore has to address all the burdens of incumbency. At the same time, it feels like it is in the opposition because they find that President Sirisena often makes executive decisions countering their policies and his strategies are more aimed at appeasing the opposition.

Faced with this prospect, the UNP has had a difficult time in office. Its hopes on re-election now rest on dividing the opposition vote to the SLFP and SLPP camps if that is possible and capturing the minority vote as much as possible. This is what it is now endeavouring to do.

There was speculation this week that the remaining Muslim ministers who had resigned in the wake of Rathana Thera’s fast would take oaths and resume duties.

The UNP is working on the premise that, if it can garner the support of almost all of the minority vote, the opposing candidate would have to poll over sixty per cent of the vote from the majority community in the South of the country. This would be near impossible to achieve now, although Mahinda Rajapaksa did so in 2010 but that was in the context of leading the country to a war victory.

In the coming months, the UNP will be working overtime to ensure that it has the support of the Tamil and Muslim communities and their respective leaderships. However, it must do so cautiously or else this tactic can be portrayed as betraying the majority community- and there were hints of such slogans emanating from the opposition in the aftermath of the Easter Sunday tragedies.

The UNP’s other headache of course is who their candidate would be. Although no candidate has officially been declared and no one has publicly proclaimed their intentions, Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, Speaker Karu Jayasuriya and Deputy Leader Sajith Premadasa are all believed to be in the fray. For both Wickremesinghe and Jayasuriya, given their seniority at seventy years and seventy-eight years respectively, they believe this will be their last tilt at national leadership. Premadasa’s supporters feel that the UNP needs a new look and a new leader if it is to make any impact.

Major decisions await the SLFP, SLPP and the UNP and their respective leaders. The leaders of the SLFP and the UNP, the President and the Prime Minister must decide whether they wish to contest the presidential election.

The leader of the SLPP who is the Leader of the Opposition must decide who his candidate should be. These are difficult decisions indeed, but a more difficult decision awaits the vote, come December 2019.

 


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