Tension in the Middle East continues to rise with the United States increasing economic and military pressure on Iran. In addition to its huge economic sanctions on Iran, the US has deployed forces - including an aircraft carrier and B-52 bombers - to the Middle East in a move American officials said was to counter “clear indications” of threats from Iran to its troops in the region.
The situation worsened after two Saudi oil tankers were targeted in ‘sabotage attacks’ off the coast of Fujairah at the UAE, threatening global oil supplies. Iran has also called for probes into these attacks.
The US has also ordered all non-essential American staff out of Iraq, as tensions between the US and Iran continues to rise. There are also calls for 120,000 US troops to be sent to the ME.
Meanwhile, Germany and the Netherlands have suspended military training in Iraq citing escalating security risks in the Gulf.
While the fast-moving developments have raised concerns that a conflict could break out between the US and Iranian forces, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has said there would be no war with the US despite mounting tensions.
European diplomats urged the US to exercise “maximum restraint” in the Middle East. Federica Mogherini, the EU’s diplomatic chief, stressed the need for dialogue following a meeting with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who made a last-minute visit to Brussels this week to share information on “escalating” threats from Iran.
“Mike Pompeo heard that very clearly from us today, not only from myself but also from other EU member states, that we are living in a crucial delicate moment where the most responsible attitude to take is that of maximum restraint,” Mogherini said. The ministers from the European signatories to the nuclear accord – Germany, United Kingdom and France - all publicly criticized the hard-line US approach.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in talks at with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Sochi, the US does not seek war with Iran. He added that: “We have also made clear to the Iranians that if American interests are attacked we will most certainly respond in the appropriate fashion.”
With tensions between US and Iran escalating sharply, US lawmakers have called on the Trump administration to be more open about its strategy on Iran. Democratic lawmakers called on administration officials to reopen diplomatic channels with Iran, tone down their rhetoric and reconsider their strategy -- or at least explain it.
Big Democracies - India
 Rising US-Iran tensions in the Gulf. |
The situation in the Middle East continues to worsen as the world moves to the largest democratic elections in history - elections of the Indian Lok Sabha or Lower House of Parliament – the world’s largest democracy, and polls to the European Parliament.
With more than 900 million having voted, the national polls in India concluded yesterday (19) and the results due to May 23. There was increased tension in many parts of India as the polls neared conclusion, with the biggest tension and confrontation in West Bengal.
There have been strong clashes between supporters of the nationally ruling Bharathiya Janatha Party (BJP) led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and those supporting the West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee who leads the Trinamool Congress (TMC), one of the strongest opponents of Prime Minister Modi.
Clashes between rival groups in Kolkata, especially during BJP President Amit Shah’s roadshow last week, led to the Election Commission ordering that campaigning in the State will end at 10 pm on Thursday (16) instead of 5 pm on Friday 17, leading to strong opposition from the TMC. West Bengal has 42 parliamentary constituencies and the majority of them have already polled. The contest in the state is very strong and the ban on polls campaigning has led to strong protests from all opposition parties.
The tension in West Bengal in this final stage of the Indian polls is because it has become politically crucial for Modi’s ruling BJP to ensure a majority in the Lok Sabha. The BJP which performed well in northern states such as Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan in the 2014 poll, has been strongly opposed by regional parties and the opposition Congress Party in those states. The BJP wants to make up for any losses in those states through a big win in West Bengal.
Political analysts say that after the sixth phase of the elections for 59 constituencies across seven states, doesn’t paint a rosy picture for Modi’s BJP and its allies. The final seventh phase voting was on Sunday 19. In the 2014 Lok Sabha election, Narendra Modi-led BJP had won 282 out of 543 constituencies in the Lok Sabha, giving a crushing defeat to the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance. The current trends show the BJP and its allies could find it difficult to reach the minimum 272 seats for a parliamentary majority as the results come on May 23. This does not assure an opposition Congress victory either. The Congress led by Rahul Gandhi and its allies are doing well, but they too are not certain of a clear 272 seats.
The BJP-Modi campaign has increasingly moved from security issues to religion and caste in a campaign that promotes Hinduism and seeks upper caste support, while the Congress-led opposition campaigns more on economic issues such as agriculture and unemployment, and the corruption of the Modi regime. Narendra Modi is the vote winner for the BJP as a strong political personality, and he has taken regular swipes as the Rahul Gandhi family, with dynastic accusation coming down from the days of Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru.
Many see the coming election as a possible coalition government result as has happened several times earlier in India.
European Parliament
More than 400 million voters are eligible to take part from 28 different countries, all electing the 751 members of the European Parliament, in elections from May 23 to 26. This year’s vote has been described as the most important ever – coming just three years after the UK’s vote to quit the EU, and with the political landscape splintering around Europe.
The emerging campaigns show broad and persistent differences between EU member states, their motley representatives, and the Eurosceptic – or pro-European – inclinations of the electorates in most European states. An initial batch of 751 MEPs will make up the next European Parliament with smaller countries such as Luxembourg, Malta and Cyprus having six each, while Germany gets 96.
The bigger issue in the current poll is the rise of far-right and Eurosceptic parties making significant gains. Far-right and anti-establishment factions could win as much as 35 per cent of the vote, rivalling the major centre-right and centre-left blocs in Europe. Though they share an aversion to immigration, nationalist and populist parties from different parts of Europe don’t always see eye-to-eye on major matters of continental policy, such as public spending.
Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini has positioned himself as the standard-bearer of Europe’s far right and is aiming to bring a far-right bloc that could wholly subvert the E.U.’s parliamentary processes. He already has support from two leading European far-right parties — France’s National Rally and the Alternative for Germany.
Far from seeking an exit from the European Union, the far right parties seek to overhaul the EU from the inside. Salvini is wooing Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, whose ruling Fidesz party has been temporarily suspended from Europe’s main centre-right bloc and could defect to the far right.
The opposition to the far-right and Eurosceptic factions come mainly from France’s President Emmanuel Macron, and from Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel – the latter now in a weaker position on her way out. The Eurosceptics also gain from the continuing delay over the exit of the UK from the EU – the Brexit Chaos.
The campaign against pro-Europe Macron in France is growing stronger, with calls from Marine Le Pen’s party telling: “The European Union is killing Europe. We need more national sovereignty, more economic patriotism, and we need to put a stop to open immigration.” In the last European elections in 2014, Le Pen’s party came on top on France, winning nearly 25 per cent of the vote, mainly due to low voter turnout. Any such situation will be a major political setback to President Macron and pro-European forces.
Australia Polls
Democracy had a major surprise success with Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison being re-elected against all opinion polls, defeating the Labor Party.
With more than 70% of votes counted the Liberal-National Coalition led by Scott Morrison has won, or is ahead in, 74 seats in its quest for a 76-seat majority, with Labor on just 66 seats. Exit polls had suggested a narrow Labor win for the first time in six years.
Australia has mandatory voting and a record 16.4 million voters enrolled for the election, which returns a new House of Representatives and just over half of the seats in the Senate. National elections are held every three years but, with infighting rife, no prime minister has succeeded in serving a full term since 2007.
Mr. Morrison said he had united his government - a coalition between his Liberal Party and its traditional ally the National Party - in the nine months since he replaced Malcolm Turnbull. Surveys showed that the economy, cost of living, environment and health were central concerns for voters, while younger people, in particular, voiced frustration about climate change and a lack of affordable housing.
Mr. Morrison campaigned primarily on economic issues, often doing so alone while painting the election as a choice between himself and the labor leader Mr. Shorten, who promised to cut tax breaks for the wealthy and to lower greenhouse gas emissions.
With the results indicating a win for the Liberal-National Coalition, Scott Morrison said he had ‘always believed in miracles’. Accepting his victory he said there had been a miracle.
• While Brexit Chaos continued Theresa May’s term in office is rapidly concluding with the breakdown of talks between her and the Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn. She has announced resignation after her Brexit Withdrawal Agreement is put to the House of Commons for a vote in early June. It was defeated thrice in the Commons and is not expected to be adopted this time. The Conservative Party is preparing to replace her as its leader, and Mr. Boris Johnson has already announced he will seek party leadership.
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