Prorogation and after | Daily News

Prorogation and after

The President prorogued Parliament on the eve of Sinhala and Hindu New Year. Perhaps it was a New Year ‘gift’ from the Head of State. Anyway, whatever is said and done, it is a grim reminder to his opponents that the Executive President is still the master of the house. It would certainly have drawn a sigh of relief from three Ministers against whom three No-Confidence Motions were pending.

The JVP, on the other hand would find its best of intentions thwarted by the lapse of the 20th Amendment to the Constitution. COPE and PAC - irritants to many a miscreant in public office also stand dissolved. The National Audit Bill and the Judicature (Amendment) Bill also lapse. More than all these the SLFP will get a further few days of breathing space for the President to manoeuvre before the rebel 16 MPs' cross over to the Opposition in Parliament. The thousand dollar question is which of these consequences did the President had in mind in deciding to prorogue Parliament suddenly.

Such prorogation to avoid embarrassment has become a tradition in the country. For example, in an earlier instance we saw Parliament being prorogued without giving it an opportunity to discuss the report of the COPE chaired by DEW Gunasekera MP.

Cabinet reshuffle

The President and Prime Minister are once again promising a new beginning and a new programme of action. Promised also are a Cabinet reshuffle and a reform of the UNP. Whether they would be superficial, cosmetic or comprehensive is yet to be seen.

One thing is clear. Notwithstanding the patriotic rhetoric that falls from their holy mouths like the waters of the Dunhinda falls, the fate of the masses or of the country is the furthest in their minds. It is that all parties are more interested in and are getting ready for the Presidential election in 2020. The UNP made it known that the Presidential candidate will be the Prime Minister. The SLFP also repeatedly says that its candidate will be President Sirisena, despite the latter remaining non-committed so far. The SLPP is certain to put a candidate though several names are still being considered.

However, the entire discourse about the next presidential election is centred round three personalities of the South. Various analysts are even predicting the possible outcome of the election now itself. One major drawback in their estimates is their assumption that only three candidates from the South would matter.

No allowance is made for the effect that would have on the outcome in case the voters in the North and East of the country back a strong regional candidate or abstain from voting. Besides political alignments in the South itself are still unstable and cross-currents are many and varied that the final equations cannot be surmised with precision. It would be naïve to do so.

Next presidential election

The prospects of the outcome changed at the last moment when a common candidate entered the scene. Till then the election was seen as a one-horse. Hence, one cannot rule out dark horses emerging at the last minute, if not earlier. Hence, it is too early to predict the results of the next presidential election. It would be like preparing the horoscope of a baby yet to be born, if one may use a local adage.

It is not only nature that is subject to change. Change is characteristic of social life too. That means the entire ensemble of social relations ranging from economics, politics, law to ideology and religion are not static but dynamic.

Political parties and their support bases also are not static and immutable. Therefore, prescriptions for development that may have been valid in 1947 or 1956 or for that matter even in 1970 and 1977 are not valid today. Today the five-fold alliance of sanga-veda-guru-govi-kamkaru (the Sangha-physician-teachers-peasant-worker) cannot be resurrected. Nor can the old type anti-UNP fronts have any meaning. The SLFP has been almost fully replaced by the SLPP, which has even carved out a large chunk of the UNP support base so that the latter is reduced to a minority with a neo-liberal outlook. More splintering of the UNP could be expected. The comprador bourgeoisie with links to the then colonial properties no longer exists and the indigenous bourgeoisie fighting for its own niche in the world market is behind the SLPP carrying a sizeable section of the petty-bourgeoisie also with it using anti-imperialist rhetoric.

Obviously there is a vacuum which could be filled by a Third Force. However, none is in the horizon, principally due to the weak, splintered Left and the continuation of disunity, suspicion and alienation among different national communities.

Failure of the two-party system

The civil society has a vital role to play in developing a social movement that could inspire the majority of the population who has lost all hope for the future due to the failure of the two-party system. An intellectual revolution is a pre-condition to give confidence to the masses that the status quo could be changed, that a better Sri Lanka is possible. It is in this respect that the silence of those who see and understand the dangerous slide of our country into an abyss is more damaging than the actions of those that cause that slide.

For example, many criticize the economic policies that have failed and even now fail to develop the country. Yet no alternative is proposed or worked out. In this situation people tend to believe that there is no other way. It is up to the progressive intellectuals-academics and professionals to put their heads together and work out an alternate development plan.

 


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