How soon will it take for the county to move towards some stability in governance, after all the political diversions and digressions of the recent No-Confidence Motion? This is the substance of the political debate today, having moved away from the immediate dangers of a success for the Joint Opposition ((JO)) and its supporters within the SLFP, especially in government. Now that a Prime Minister, challenged both by his political opponents and his own Cabinet colleagues, has won confidence in his office, the issues facing the government are how serious it could or would be in the coming months, in carrying out the policies it obtained a mandate from the people, both in January and August 2015.
The JO is thrust into a shaky situation. Not all the brouhaha of its strategists produced the results it proclaimed from political hilltops in the past few weeks, over the NCM against the Prime Minister. In fact, Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, did far better than all of his opponents would have ever liked, and also showed that despite divisions on organisational issues within his own party, he had the support of its elected representatives in parliament, and was also able to draw the support of other parties both in government and opposition.
The events on the day of the NCM in parliament certainly showed major differences within the governing coalition of the UNP and SLFP, and the underlying weaknesses within the JO, which boasted of a huge victory in recent local government polls.
The JO did manage to increase the vote for the NCM from the 55 who had signed it to just 76 (with one signatory absent), but hardly sufficient to give meaning to its boasts of how the Prime Minister would be replaced after the vote on the NCM. It was certainly misled, or let down, by its allies in the government – the SLFP voices that have been against Prime Minister Wickremesinghe for some months, especially after the SLFP’s resounding defeat in the local government polls.
The JO also had to face ignominy in its statements about more than 20 members of the UNP definitely voting against their party leader on the NCM. There certainly is a strong call for reform within the UNP, especially on issues of leadership and wider national policies; but these are not divisions that would support its rivals, such as those in the JO and SLPP, or even the SLFP. These were and remain inner-party divisions and the NCM vote showed the JO had totally misread them, and were misled by the party related statements of critics such as Palitha Range Bandara and Wasantha Senanayake.
The UNP will be active in the coming days and weeks paying attention to its inner-party issues, and is likely to emerge in a stronger position than both its government ally – the SLFP, and the Opposition JO in the coming months.
The SLFP issue
The NCM has certainly exposed much of the divisions within the SLFP that raises important questions on its capability on making a proper contribution to a government of unity in the coming months. The issue did begin months before the NCM was initiated and became the hot topic of politics. This went back to the campaign in the local government polls, when President Maithripala Sirisena, as leader of the SLFP and national president – threatened to use his sword against the forces of corruption, targeting both the Rajapaksa leadership of the former government and the UNP.
The huge win of the SLPP's Pohottuwa in the local government polls, pushing the UNP to a distant second place, and the SLFP/UPFA into a much further third place (12%) votes, certainly raised issues involving the role and function of the SLFP, under its present leadership, in the politics of Sri Lanka. The party which had been the biggest rival to the UNP since 1956, and has led several governments that defeated or kept out the UNP for several decades, is now facing a situation when its very existence is being questioned, which was clearly displayed by its members at the NCM.
The NCM itself was a hugely dividing situation, especially to the SLFP. The JO and its Mahinda Rajapaksa leadership was trying to get rid of Ranil Wickremesinghe and the UNP, and gain support from the SLFP led by President Sirisena for an anti-UNP, and hugely racist and majoritarian government to be led by the Rajapaksas. This echoed very well with many of the lead SLFP players within the Unity Government such as Susil Premajayantha, Nimal Siripala de Silva, SB Dissanayake, Dilan Perera and others in the ministerial ranks of the unity government, who saw benefits of an alliance with the JO and SLPP, especially considering future elections. The rolling out of the NCM also saw a major crisis of unity within the leadership of the Unity Government, with President Sirisena being compelled to make an unofficial and undeclared support for the NCM against the Prime Minister of his government and leader of the UNP, that was hugely responsible for the election of the Common Candidate Sirisena in the Presidential Poll of January 2015.
While the President took several measures to remove or reduce the powers or functions of the Prime Minister, such as by taking the Central Bank and Securities and Exchange Commission from the Prime Minister to the Finance Minister, and made no criticisms of the leading SLFP Cabinet and other ministers who were openly criticizing and opposed to the Prime Minister, showed a rising antagonism within the government; and at the vote on the NCM showed major differences within the SLFP.
Voting pattern
The voting itself showed the divisions within the SLFP. Very early in the day State Minister AHM Fowzie, said on record that the SLFP had decided to abstain from voting at the NCM.
Very soon after State Minister Lakshman Yapa Abeywardena said the SLFP will support the NCM, and so confirmed by Dilan Perera. But at voting there were 17 members of the SLFP, who remain under the leadership of President Sirisena, were absent from the House. Those missing hold important Cabinet, and State and Deputy Minister positions, and also include the Secretary of the SLFP - Duminda Dissanayake and the Secretary of the UPFA – Mahinda Amaraweera.
There was also Provincial Council and Local Government Minister Faiszer Musthapha, who was one of those very critical of Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe in the campaign for the NCM and Nimal Siripala de Silva, who brought the final message to Ranil Wickremesinghe to resign from office, and the oft tipped next SLFP PM. Were they following or ignoring a party call on the NCM voting?
In the event the resounding parliamentary victory for Ranil Wickremesinghe in his 40th year in parliamentary politics, has in fact been an overwhelming setback to the SLFP, and raises many questions about its impact on electoral polls in the country. This will certainly lead to the SLPP needing to have a re-think about the ability of the SLFP, as it is structured and led today being of much benefit to it in future polls. This would certainly cause much worry for the SLFP members of the government who voted against Ranil Wickremesinghe in the NCM.
The politics ahead
Much of the politics ahead will have to do with the interpretation and functioning of the 19th Amendment to the Constitution. It was clear that the Prime Minister could not be removed by the President under 19A. This is what really caused the NCM. But, there are also boasts by SLFP Ministers that they will remain in a future Cabinet, even though they voted against the PM in this NCM.
This has more to do with the principles of the persons involved than the constitutionality of their positions. However, there are several bigger issues that the government will have to face up to in the coming weeks.
These include the revival of the policies and pledges given to the people prior to the January 8, 2015 Presidential Poll. How serious could the government, under its present leadership be, about adopting a new constitution? This is hardly likely, after having almost abandoned it in large measure in the past three years.
This could well move in a different direction, which would mean, limiting new changes to abolishing the Executive Presidency, and moving towards a Parliamentary Democracy with a Ceremonial President, Civil Society organisations that were involved in pushing the support for the Common Candidate in January 2015, are again looking at the possibility of how the current political situation and its limitations, could help in abolishing the Executive Presidency.
This could be the important stuff in future politics, which could also obtain the support of Mahinda Rajapaksa, who would wish to be a powerful prime minister, not having to be restricted by an Executive President. This could well be the key area of future political debate, apart from the crises of the SLFP and its leadership.
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