With the nominations for elections to all local bodies concluding earlier this week, the stage is set for the local government elections throughout the county on February 10, 2018 under the new electoral system, making it an effective National Poll of deep political significance.
The week also saw a major development on the anti-Rajapaksa Regime corruption drive, with many ministers calling for a Presidential Commission to probe the removal of the Army Headquarters from Galle Face by the Rajapaksa Government, at the cost of an annual rent of Rs. 15 billion for 15 buildings for the defence forces, when Gotabhaya Rajapaksa was Secretary, Ministry of Defence, and many more aspects of corruption involved in this deal. The situation is certainly no Shangri-la for the country.
In the Local Govt. Polls, three leading contenders for the mayoralty of Colombo – the UNP, UPFA and JVP have announced their mayoral candidates. Several nomination lists of political parties and independent groups have been rejected by the Elections Office personnel.
The coming election will be an event of major political rivalry with the fight for control of a majority of local bodies being a race among three political forces – the SLFP with the UPFA led by President Maithripala Sirisena - the official leader of the SLFP, the UNP and United National Front for Good Governance(UNFGG) led by Prime Minister and UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe, and the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) with the Joint Opposition (JO) unofficially led by former President Mahinda Rajapaksa, who was the last President of the SLFP and UPFA. Two other major players will be the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) throughout the country, and in the North and East, the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) led by R. Sampanthan. These major political groupings will draw support from smaller parties aligned with them, and also find opposition from independent groups.
As the campaign builds up, there are all signs of this being projected as a mini-poll or run up to a General Election, with attempts to show which, among the three main political groups outside the North & East, would be able to display strength as the likely winner of the General Election due in 2020, and thereby be the successor to the present unity government of the UNP and SLFP coalition. Of course the JVP is making a strong case of its own, as the party that is without the record of failures and major defeats suffered by the UNP and SLFP-UPFA, and certainly with more experience than the SLPP. But this is no easy task because of its earlier alliances with the SLFP in government, holding portfolios too, as well as its support for Common Candidate Maithripala Sirisena at the Presidential Poll in January 2015.
Failure of alliance
The campaign for the February 10 poll comes after the failure to bring about an alliance between the Sirisena-led SLFP and the Joint Opposition manipulated SLPP with the dominance of Mahinda Rajapaksa. This will now be a major confrontation between these two rivals, both seeking to gain the advantage of the Blue Flag of the SLFP, as well as opposition to the UNP and its Green Flag. The clash between the blue rivals shows all signs of moving down to the grass roots level of the rural sector, with the Sirisena-led SLFP-UPFA having the advantage of controlling the strings of power in the central government. As the campaign moves on, there is an emerging opposition to the Rajapaksa sibling, Basil, the key organiser of the SLPP, noticeable among non-SLFP members of the Joint Opposition and many SLFP members within the JO too, who have been strongly critical of Basil Rajapaksa’s contribution to the defeat of the Mahinda Rajapaksa presidency and Rajapaksa Regime in January 2015.
As the election campaign moves on there will also be many more situations of political leapfrogging, mainly from the JO to the SLFP, due to the ability of the Sirisena presidency to offer fruits of satisfaction through political office in diverse areas of government. The SLFP also has the advantage of threatening disciplinary action against those formally in that party who contest or campaign against it in support of the SLPP, an electoral rival. Part of this tactic is seen in the move by the UPFA General Secretary Mahinda Amaraweera, to have ex-President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s photo on the SLFP’s electoral posters, as the unofficial leader and key vote drawer for the SLPP remains, for the record, a member of the SLFP.
The UNP clout
The fighting between the SLFP-UPFA and JO-SLPP is also part of the commonality of purpose in being opposed the UNP-UNFGG. The failure of the SLFP and JO-SLPP to form an alliance for these polls was mainly due to Mahinda Rajapaksa’s demand that the Sirisena-SLFP abandon its support for the UNP-SLFP coalition of unity in government. Earlier plans for several leading SLFP members in government to cross over to the JO, did not succeed, although many of them remain openly critical of the UNP. But the UNP’s own strength and its ability to form a majority government within parliament, certainly made those verbally and vociferously anti-UNP SLFP leaders to realize their own weakness if they were out of government office, including positions in the Cabinet.
The rivalry of the Blue camps – has clearly given a major advantage to the UNP, as the partner of the coalition of unity, in the coming election. Its clout comes from unity as a party and the ability to manage or manipulate the economic and fiscal policies of the government, where any weakness or failure, such as the cost of living, certainly a major issue before voters, also strikes the President who is the SLFPs leader, and in this situation the UNP’s rival. Its ranks are united both in the urban and rural sectors, and it also has considerable support among the minorities, both ethnic and religious. However, a statement by one of its leaders John Amaratunga, and the continued presence of Ravi Karunanayake in a leadership position, have certainly undermined some of the UNP’s campaign; but not to the extent that rivalry has affected the SLFP and JO-SLPP.
However, there is also the situation of the UNP being in a disadvantageous position on the issue of corruption, arising from the Central Bank and Treasury bond scam. As a party that was in the lead in the fight against corruption, that helped elect Maithripala Sirisena in January 2015, the UNP is today facing much public criticism and opposition on the Bond Scam issue. It could get worse with the release of the related Presidential Commission Report by December 31, when the poll campaign gets hotter.
What is seen from the rivalries in the current poll campaign is that politics of Sri Lanka today is largely that of the assurance of the benefits of government office; and very little, if any, of a commitment to serve the people and society. It is the politics of personal profitability and prodigious gain through office, which clearly drives the vast majority of politicians, both in government and the opposition. There are little signs the coming local government election will make any change in this thinking. The public, and especially civil society, will have to play an important role in the continued fight against corruption, in this poll campaign too, if the public call for clean government is to be effective.
No Shangri-la here
The moves by the JO and the “Eliya” and other majoritarian activists to attack the government through support for Gotabhaya Rajapaksa, will soon face a new development, over the sale of the Army Headquarters land at Galle Face to the Chinese “Shangri-la” hotel builders. President Sirisena’s information to the Cabinet on what appears to be serious undervaluing of this land, the speed of sale to the Chinese developer, the cost involved in rent for the several premises occupied by the defence personnel, and many other questionable acts by the former Ministry of Defence, brings a whole new issue that can possibly capture public interest, with much impact against the Rajapaksa Regime.
At a time when there is public concern about political moves to prevent the arrest of Gotabhaya Rajapaksa for alleged wrongdoings in meeting the costs of the DA Rajapaksa Museum at Weeeraketiya, amounting to Rs. 90 million, a matter before the Court of Appeal on a petition by Gotabhaya Rajapaksa, there will be demands for a proper and thorough probe into this speedy sale of prime value to a Chinese company, which is also considered a threat to the security of Colombo.
This will remain a topic of much political and public interest, both through the Local Govt. Polls and after that. The debate on corruption, both during the past government and the present shows all signs of remaining a key factor in the substance of politics, involving most political parties.
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