The status quo will remain

So, the Joint Opposition has decided to go it alone, for the upcoming Local Government Elections. The final decision, in this regard, had been taken at a meeting of JO parliamentarians, at the Parliament Complex, presided over by former President Mahinda Rajapaksa, on Tuesday, it has been reported, in the vernacular press. A majority of the JO MPs, according to the news item, were opposed to contesting alongside the UPFA, since they could not agree to the conditions laid down by the Sirisena faction, to coalesce, to fight the UNP. There had also been a section, who favoured the joining of forces, but the majority, it is reported, had opposed such a course, chiefly due to the ‘harassment’ of it's members, by the government.

The JO, which will be contesting the poll, in alliance with several parties, under the pohottuwa symbol, has also commenced joint discussions to select the candidates. A poster campaign has also been launched, bearing the slogan 'victorious battle' jayagrahi satana, although on behalf of whose jayagrahanaya, it is not clear. Hence, one has only to surmise that it is towards the victory of Mahinda Rajapaksa that all this noise is being made, since it is the former President, who has been the focal point, in all the propaganda rallies held, since his ouster on January 8, as also with the maiden pohottuwa rally held in Anuradhapura, last Sunday.

If that, indeed, is the whole idea, then the JO's energies would be best directed elsewhere, since Mahinda Rajapaksa, is, today, a has been, where high political office is concerned. The 19th amendment saw to that. He will also, certainly, not be considered for nominations at the next general election, from the UPFA, and, he could kiss goodbye to his Prime Ministerial prospects. The JO, has, as much a chance as a snow ball in hell of winning sufficient seats at a general election to make MR, PM.

It is also moot that Mahinda Rajapaksa will be a deciding factor at a local government election, where, the ladle to dish out the gravy, is in the hands of the government, a fact which has not escaped the voting public, in the past. Besides, the two party system has come to stay in this country, a fact which was also brought home at all previous elections.

Sinhala cinema's heartthrob, Vijaya Kumaratunga, broke away from the Sri Lanka Freedom Party, along with wife Chandrika, to form the Sri Lanka Mahajana Pakshaya, in 1984, in a bid to challenge the SLFP. In the by-elections that soon followed, except in Minneriya, where Vijaya himself contested, and, beat the SLFP candidate to third place, the SLMP received a drubbing in the two other electorates, it contested. It is doubtful if Mahinda Rajapaksa possesses more charisma than Vijaya, to stage an upset, notwithstanding his war winning credentials which, anyway, failed to make an impact, on January 8.

Not just Vijaya, there were others, who were potential leaders of this country, who deserted their parties to form alternatives, to challenge the status quo. Gamini, Lalith, Premachandra et al. also formed a political party, after being forced to leave the UNP in the aftermath of the impeachment episode. However the Rajaliya party, which they formed, failed to make any headway at the Provincial Council elections, that followed the assassination of President Premadasa, coming a poor third, behind the UNP and the PA. Well, one could argue that the sympathy vote went the UNP's way. But this could not be the case, since the late President, was, at the time, portrayed as the darkest villain, by the Opposition. This, however, failed to sway the voting public, to vote for the UNP’s alternative. Ditto for Rukman Senanayake, the grandson of the Father of the Nation, whose Eksath Lanka Janatha Pakshaya died a natural death.

Of course, the JO must be buoyed by crowd attendance, at its rallies, to feel confident of victory. Sirima Bandaranaike, too, drew mammoth crowds to her elections rallies, in 1977, but the SLFP was practically wiped out, at the poll, handing JRJ a five sixth majority. Similarly, Mahinda Rajapaksa drew the same crowds, as was witnessed in Anuradhapura, on Sunday, at both, the presidential and general elections, but came a cropper when it mattered.

The JO has overlooked the fact that a large SLFP element, which was with MR, at both, the presidential and general election, is today, in the Yahapalanaya government, which is bound negate any headway it (JO) hopes to make. In the Yahapalanaya are SLFP ministers, who topped the list in the preference vote, or, those who were placed very high on the list. This support base could not have dwindled, all that much, even in the face of certain adverse developments, such as the recent petroleum crisis. Among this lot are ministers, holding important portfolios, which place them is a position to dispense largess, to the SLFP supporters.

All these factors, no doubt, are going to combine to bring forth a similar fate to the JO, that befell all the breakaway parties, mentioned above.