While the Supreme Court earns the worthy respect of the people for its decision on the proposed 20th Amendment to the Constitution, the decision has also shown that the independence of the judiciary is a reality today, which is a major change from the situation that prevailed for more than a decade before the major political change of January 2015, and especially bad during the near decade of the Rajapaksa Regime.
In deciding that the proposed changes to the Provincial Council electoral process, which included the postponement of some provincial council polls that are due very soon, and the move to enable parliament to decide on the timing of PC elections, the Supreme Court has clearly established the rights of the voters to decide on such major issues that involve the core of democracy. The Supreme Court has addressed the concerns of the people, expressed very strongly by the political parties and civil society organisations that opposed the government’s move to change the PC electoral process, stating the proposed changes would need both a 2/3rd majority in Parliament as well as a national referendum.
It is a fact that the government paid little heed to the concerns expressed by those who opposed this move, on the grounds that letting Parliament decide on the timing of such elections would give such decisions a strong political hue that challenges the importance of the democratic process on such major electoral decisions. While the thinking of the government to hold all PC elections on the same day has much in favour, considering the cost and organisational abilities, and preventing the benefits that some political parties would gain by having polls on different days by their ability to bring all resources to one or two provinces at a time; the major issue against, it in the current context, was the politics that would necessarily prevail when Parliament decides on such a date.
Making the people of Sabaragamuwa, North Central and Eastern Provinces who’s Provincial Councils complete their current terms in late September and early October, and in all other PCs, to wait till the end of 2018, when the term of the Northern Provincial Council ends, would have enabled Parliament to manage the affairs of the dissolved PCs until Northern PC poll is due, enabling parliamentary politics to manipulate the fixing of the final date for the election of all PCs. This is certainly moving against the principle of democracy on which the PCs are elected, and the Supreme Court has made it clear that such political cum parliamentary majoritarian manipulation of the democratic process is wholly unacceptable.
The amendment to the Provincial Council election process passed in Parliament this week will introduce a change in the system of voting, moving away from the system of complete Proportional Representation (PR) to one of 60 per cent on First Past the Post and the balance with PR. It has also provided for a mandatory 30 per cent of women candidates to be included in the nomination papers of parties and independent groups contesting PC polls from now on. These are favourable changes that strengthen the democratic process, and assurance by Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe that the Sabaragamuwa, NCP and Easter PC polls would be held by March next year, or even earlier, is most welcome for the progress of democracy in the provincial councils.
The government has thus overcome a major clash with the Opposition and democratic political forces in the country, which was not in any way necessary in pursuing a policy of democratic administration.
Of course, the SC ruling on the necessity of a referendum will also impact in favour of those in the government and opposition, who are opposed to any major changes in the Constitution, and would be a push back to the all or major constitutional reform.
Coming political clashes
With the Local Government and PC polls now becoming a reality after all the planned, organisational and legal delays that now appear to have been overcome, the elections when held will certainly show new political realities, which will give more impact to the much publicized clashes between the SLFP and the Joint Opposition (JO). The divisions in the SLFP are now moving to more concrete situations, where the Sirisena –Rajapaksa rivalry can come to an open confrontation that will not be easily avoided.
The division between the members of the United Peoples Freedom Alliance (UPFA), where the SLFP is the largest party, will certainly come to a much sharper situation than what prevailed during the General Election in August 2105. The alliances of the SLFP membership in the country have not yet been tested, and the time is fast approaching when that test will take place. In the next elections, whether Local Government or PC, there is all possibility of a clear two-way clash between the SLFP ranks, unlike in August 2015, when the UPFA and SLFP remained largely united. This did change with that large number of SLFPers who joined the Sirisena – Ranil Government after August 2015, in what was called a Grand Coalition of National Unity. Meanwhile, the JO has continued to carry on a campaign against the leadership of Maithripala Sirisena to the UPFA/SLFP, emphasizing on the importance of the Mahinda Rajapaksa leadership.
As the call for the new elections take place, the divisions between the UPFA/SLFP “alliance” will certainly move to a break, with the JO members who wish to contest these polls having to come under a different party label.
The SLFP organisation is firmly under the control and direction of President Sirisena, although one is uncertain of the local membership level. With the official SLFP running its own candidates in these elections, the JO group will of necessity have to contest either as an independent group, or as it seems most likely now under the Si Lanka Podujana Pakshaaya (SLPP) banner. Mahinda Rajapaksa has already indicated this would be the reality. Which would mean the Maithripala Sirisena led SLFP/UPFA contesting under the “Chair” or “Betel Leaf” symbol and the SLPP contesting under the “flower bud” symbol. This will be a major test of the actual popularity of the two rival leaders, and will also show the position of the SLFP membership, especially in the rural sector where it is believed to be strongest.
The legality
This brings out a major issue of the legality of rivalry within a single political party. There has been a judgment in the past when politicians who challenged the leadership of a major political party had to fight on their own, as seen with the failed challenge that the late Lalith Athulathmudali and Gamini Dissanayake post to then President Ranasinghe Premadasa.
The present SLFP members, who remain supportive of Mahinda Rajapaksa, will be unable to contest on the Blue party ticket, when the Sirisena-led SLFP nominates its own candidates, The Rajapaksa-JO group will then have to contest the official SLFP candidates, from the SLPP, as indicated at present, which will raise a major legal issue of their continuing to be SLFP members. The opinion of many legal and political analysts is that they could very well lose their SLFP membership.
The result will be an open clash between the official and formal SLFP (whatever its mass membership base) with a rival political party. It is only the post-election count that will show the actual strength of the rival groups, but it is a very good organisational position for the Sirisena faction, with the key party posts and the local organiser posts held by its members.
Jumbo benefit
The clash between the SLFP rivals will certainly be of much benefit to the UNP, which will be formally opposed by both factions, and possibly by the JVP too, in the Sinhala majority areas. The most likely result would be a success or the UNP, due to the rivalry among its main opponent, fighting in two actions.
There is also a strong possibility that the JVP, as the party that has not controlled government power, except in a short lived coalition, getting much more support, especially from those who voted for the Common Candidate in January 2015, with their determination to continue with the change, with those who have never held the reins of power.
However, as the SLFP clash and rivalry widens, the UNP, despite the image problems over the Bond Scams and other issues of corruption that keeps emerging, has a chance of gaining the major benefits from the politics of division in the opposition ranks.
These clashes, and the possible success of the UNP, could well be a major opportunity for the “Eliya” strategists, if they are able to present a message that will go beyond the crooked politics of today. 
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