Slowly but surely, the country is inching its way towards what could be a vital test of political popularity for the major political parties- the Local Government elections.
The polls will not alter the balance of power in Parliament but are likely to play a critical role in redefining political alliances both within the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) as well in the National Unity government the SLFP has in partnership with the United National Party (UNP).
These elections have been due for some time now but have been postponed on the grounds that delimitation of the new electoral wards have been incomplete, leading to accusations from the Joint Opposition (JO) faction of the SLFP. It claimed that polls are being postponed because both the mainstream SLFP as well as the UNP fear defeat.
The report of the Delimitation Committee was due to be gazetted this week. Elections Commission Chairman Mahinda Deshapriya has announced that, once any appeals to the recommendations of the report have been dealt with, Local Government elections could be held within 90 days- which could see mid-year elections.
Discontent among voters
The JO is particularly keen on the elections being held. It believes it can capture power in a lion’s share of the local councils. This is because it believes it can cash in on the government’s slow pace in keeping its promises resulting in some discontent among voters. Also, most councils were packed to the rafters with loyalists of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa and, this being a grassroots election, they will be the names and faces familiar to the voter.
For the JO to do so however, they will have to contest as a separate political party. This will come in the form of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). Its nominal head is former minister G. L. Peiris. At present, the party doesn’t command much of a presence in the electorate and its hope for success will be by presenting itself as the alternative face of the SLFP.
Until now, Rajapaksa has had the luxury of maintaining a low profile within the SLFP. He remains an office bearer of the party. Despite uttering many barbed voice cuts aimed mostly against the leadership of President Maithripala Sirisena, the mainstream SLFP has not moved to act against him. In turn, Rajapaksa has refrained from crossing that fine line between thinly veiled criticism and outright dissent.
If the currently low-profile SLPP is to make any headway in the Local Government elections, it will need to strut its mascot- Rajapaksa- on the electoral stage. This means that Rajapaksa would have to actively defy the SLFP and campaign for the SLPP- and risk facing disciplinary action.
It is well known in SLFP circles that President Sirisena has been urged, time and again, to take decisive action against Rajapaksa due to his ongoing public criticism of the government in general and President Sirisena in particular. Former President Chandrika Kumaratunga, for instance, strongly believes that Rajapaksa should be dealt with more sternly.
Presidential elections
President Sirisena has resisted these calls. His thinking is that such a move will irrevocably split the party. He has argued among his loyalists that his entire course of action after winning the presidential elections mostly on UNP votes, was aimed at keeping the mainstream SLFP intact, even as the JO functions as a separate entity in Parliament.
However, if the JO reinvents itself as the SLPP, there will be little reason left for the President to mollycoddle its members and swift action could follow. This is why the Local Government elections could mark a watershed in reshaping political forces in the country.
On the other hand, all is not hunky-dory between the SLFP and the UNP either, where stalwarts keep sniping at each other on key issues, be it the fate of the medical school in Malabe, the South Asian Institute of Technology and Medicine (SAITM) or the arguably more important question of constitutional reform.
For instance, Foreign Minister Mangala Samaraweera has been advocating for constitutional reform and hinting at drastic changes as a means of achieving reconciliation between the different communities. Similarly, Leader of the House and Minister Lakshman Kiriella has stated that the UNP would, with the consent of the SLFP, work towards a referendum that would enable key constitutional reforms. Ironically, both Samaraweera and Kiriella are former SLFPers.
SAITM issue
Outspoken State Minister Dilan Perera appeared to pooh-pooh these ideas this week. Minister Perera has said that there was no decision by the SLFP at present to support any constitutional amendment that would need a referendum. Known for his provocative remarks, Perera marked Valentine’s Day by saying that his dream was for President Sirisena and Rajapaksa as well as Rajapaksa and Kumaratunga to exchange roses and end their discord!
On the issue of SAITM too, the parties have had different opinions. While Minister Kiriella, who holds the portfolio of Higher Education, strongly supports SAITM being accommodated his colleague and former Minister of Education Susil Premajayantha has been critical of the manner in which SAITM was set up.
Of course, SAITM is an extremely divisive issue and even some ministers in the SLFP camp are known to endorse SAITM being recognised, subject to regulatory mechanisms. In this respect, former Minister of Higher Education S. B. Dissanayake who held the portfolio when SAITM was set up has stuck to his guns.
Dissanayake calls a spade a spade and didn’t mince his words in recommending SAITM for recognition while criticising the Government Medical Officers’ Association for their handling of the issue.
What all this demonstrates is that the government, comprising two parties who were rivals for 60 years, is having difficulty speaking in one voice. This leads to each minister or leader reading from his own script and mixed messages reaching the public.
This confusion may have contributed to President Sirisena deferring a proposed Cabinet reshuffle. A few days before Independence Day, Minister Mahinda Amaraweera was to announce that a Cabinet reshuffle would be effected shortly. There was widespread speculation that Amaraweera, a relatively junior minister, would not have made a far reaching statement without the presidential nod of approval.
This led to the rumour mill taking over. Political circles were buzzing with the news that three UNP ministers would be given ‘less important’ portfolios. However, it was not to be. A few days later, Amaraweera himself retracted his words, saying that a reshuffle was not the need of the hour.
Executive power under Constitution
It appears that while there may have been consideration given to a reshuffle, the understanding between President Sirisena and the UNP was that the UNP would decide on who its ministers for the different portfolios would be.
Of course, as the holder of executive power under the Constitution, the President is entitled to appoint and remove ministers at his whim.
In fact, it will be recalled that former President Chandrika Kumaratunga did just that when she presided over a United National Front government from 2001 to 2004.
However, that led to a parting of ways between the UNF and Kumaratunga and President Sirisena was obviously not keen for history to repeat itself.
Therefore, if a Cabinet reshuffle does eventuate in the foreseeable future, Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe will be advising the President on who he would want replaced and reshuffled from among the UNP ministers. That way, the President gets his reshuffle and the UNP gets its say. Nevertheless, slowly but surely the battle lines are being drawn between the SLFP, UNP and the JO, in preparation for the Local Government elections. Electoral arithmetic would predict that if the contest sees a three way split between the parties, it would be to the UNP’s advantage and the UNP would surely want to cash in on this.
The elections though are at least a few months away- and that is a very long time in Sri Lankan politics where anything can happen.
Add new comment