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By Milinda Cumaranatunge

There is another Gulf war looming ahead, which will certainly lead to higher oil prices. Sri Lanka would have had the nearly impossible task of dealing with that with an economy on the down turn and the ethnic conflict. Today, the country is positioned much better to deal with the unpredictable nature of Middle East oil with more reserves and a little more flexibility with the defense budget. There is renewed interest by the international community to improve the living standards of the people in the North and the South.

There was a time before the ethnic conflict when foreign investors believed that Sri Lanka was a good bet. Peace will bring some of that confidence back. Our country's largest foreign exchange earner, garments, has challenging times ahead. With the quota system being abolished in a couple of years, the industry must find new ways to be competitive. Peace will help the industry and the government focus on these issues and instill confidence in the buyers.

The LTTE, after a couple of successful campaigns against economic targets, were in a strong position in the middle of 2001. The Militant group had a good fighting force with good fund raising tactics and international indifference. But "September 11" changed all that. Suddenly the LTTE find themselves in the international limelight, grouped together with other groups deemed as international terror organizations. The attention drawn to these groups by the media and the US government has made the LTTE's staunch supporters very nervous. Tremendous pressure was brought upon governments that had ignored the activities of the LTTE and groups like them for years. These governments began to curb their fund raising and the support to their cadres on the frontline. When both the UK and Canada banned the LTTE and began to freeze their assets, the LTTE leadership and its wealthy supporters overseas would have come to the realization that it was time for a change of direction. Although we do not know for certain why they dropped their demand for a separate state, it is clear that their ability to sustain their fighting force in a hostile environment with the present state of the world would be difficult.

Some may feel that as the peace process drags along, the LTTE will get stronger and the armed forces of the Government will get weaker. The LTTE will gain strength but not a sustainable one and the forces will feel the pinch from the diminishing defense budget and the lax in security. If war returns, the initial punches by the LTTE will be hard and may bring this country to the brink, but most probably we may be just back to square one. We have in the meantime avoided a global economic slowdown and the country has gained some trust from the international community on our dedication to peace. The economy has revved back up and will gain strength as peace and time goes by. A strong economy with diverse industries and a trainable educated workforce will be essential to be in a position of strength to make any kind of impact towards a lasting peace. Economic strength is essential to maintain any kind of military strength or resist any threats against the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the nation. In World War II, Japan and Germany raised huge armies and fought an initially militarily weak America only to fall under the economic and industrial might of America at the end. Although our situation is vastly different, the advantages of having a solid economy with the robustness to resist attempts to destabilize it cannot be understated. It is the same issue that has brought the LTTE to the negotiating table. Although they are strong militarily, the economic outlook for the LTTE looks bleak. They seem to be trying to consolidate their arms and are pondering their future.

Today the political atmosphere in the country is unique. The leaders of the two prominent political parties of the South are in positions of power. Both parties have played a role in bringing about the peace we enjoy today. But now they also have the unique opportunity to contribute equally towards a lasting solution as parties in power and not as the Government and opposition. In the political arena, the two parties will always try to out manoeuvre each other, but the leadership of both parties appears to want a solution to the ethnic conflict. All political parties must cooperate on the final solution whether its federalism or something else and share equally in the popularity and rewards it may bring. The political parties can play their games after they solve this pressing issue and can out do each other for power and popularity, as this is the nature of the beast. The country would roll along quite smoothly once the conflict is solved even with the parties wrangling with each other for power, as we have seen in nations like Italy which seem to have had a new government every week not so long ago.

But hypothetically, if the Mafia took over the island of Sicily and wanted to secede from the nation of Italy, we would have certainly seen the Italian political parties cooperating towards a solution. The PA and the UNF have the unique opportunity to help each other and check each other on this road towards a lasting peace and preserving the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the nation.

If the LTTE are sincere and are only interested in shared rule and administration of the North and East, their mistrust of any solution presented to them by a non-cooperating Southern majority, is understandable. Some believe that the Government should seize the opportunity of the prevailing anti-terrorism sentiment and not negotiate but prosecute the group under the law by force if necessary. Which would mean going back to war at some stage and it is highly unlikely that we can achieve this as the last 20 years has shown us.

Even in an unlikely scenario of a stronger military taking control of all areas of the North and East, terrorism will never be eradicated. There is no home run option for either side in the conflict prevailing in our country today. The fire of Tamil militancy, born out of desperation and some of them legitimate issues, can only be controlled now by peaceful means. The psyche of inflicting terror, a dimension introduced and mastered by the LTTE, and its ability to affect large numbers of people indirectly, will be irresistible for some that have been trained in the art. Through peace we must reach out to all communities, give them some form of self-determination and raise their quality of life. The LTTE has contributed to the desperation of the communities in the north and fed off that desperation for years. If they now feel that it is time to change their approach to achieving Eelam from militancy and terror to other means, it is about time. The non-violent approach, even if it's legal and constitutional wrangling, which they seem to be doing now, is better than death and destruction. Then our country will be at war trying to safeguard its territorial integrity using words and brains instead of weapons and bombs. If the LTTE continue to have aspirations for Eelam during the negotiations and opt for methods such as civil disobedience and satyagraha, their ability to peacefully mobilize the masses of the North is questionable. Such acts even in a moderate scale will do little to sway popular opinion and unlike its effect on the British rulers during the independence of India, will do little to cripple the economy. The Gandhian approach will be appropriate, as a later option for the LTTE or one of its support groups, but its leader, who has propagated so much violence, will not be mistaken for the Mahatma.

If all parties including the LTTE accept some form of federalism and work within its confines to develop the country, other issues that have plagued our nation may be ironed out too. Inefficiency and corruption is a major issue that has crippled our country. It is possible that certain states within a federal Sri Lanka will spearhead the elimination of these issues, as this may be possible to do under the smaller administration of a state. It is possible that the Northern state or province of Sri Lanka might turn out do be like Singapore. The country should not fear this but must embrace it, as this may be the road to becoming a Second World Nation like Malaysia. The people in the north should ask for better and wider representation as the Lee Kuan Yew of the subcontinent could be in their midst.

Once a solution is agreed upon and put in place, its acceptance will be hardest for the present generation. Those who have lost family and friends will feel the pain of injustice. The millions of people who feel that this country was robbed of a greater future may feel cheated. Like Desmond Tutu preached in South Africa, we must profess the concept of restorative justice and not retributive justice. Those who have been hardened into the concept of embracing death for their cause might feel shame and loss of face. We must show and encourage that there is greater dignity in life and peace than in death and war. We must seize the opportunity and resolve our differences. We have lost too much time, too many lives and so many futures. We must pursue peace with vigilance and a positive attitude.

Fear not loud bangs or
broken mirror
Tis of rejoicing, not of terror
Let us hold hands
and share our sorrow
To give our lives
a better tomorrow

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